Treasury Rate Movements, December 2018
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm201812.png)
The one, three, and six-month rates rose in December while all other rates dropped. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to two months. The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month. Long-term rates fell while short-term rates rose thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, November 2018
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm201811.png)
The one, three, and six-month, and the one-year rates rose in November while all other rates dropped. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its one month widening streak. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. Long-term rates fell while short-term rates rose thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, October 2018
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm201810.png)
All rates rose in October. The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its two month steady streak. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. All rates rose at a somewhat similar pace to each other keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates at the same level as the previous month. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, September 2018
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm201809.png)
All rates rose in September. The yield curve remained the same as the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak at four-months. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. All rates rose at a somewhat similar pace to each other keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates at the same level as the previous month. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, August 2018
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm201808.png)
All short-term rates and the one-year rate rose in August while all other medium-term and long-term rates dropped. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to four-months. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. Short-term rates rose at a similar pace to the drop in long-term rates thus the yield curve narrowed equally from the bottom and the top keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates the same. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, July 2018
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm201807.png)
All rates rose in July. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to three-months. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. Short-term rates rose more rapidly than long-term rates thus the yield curve narrowed mostly from the bottom increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, June 2018
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm201806.png)
The 30-year rate was the only one to drop in June while the three-month and the 20-year rates remained steady and all other rates rose. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to two-months. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. Although short-term rates rose, they did not rise as rapidly as the 30-year dropped and thus the yield curve narrowed mostly from the top decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, May 2018
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm201805.png)
Short-term rates rose in May while medium and long-term rates dropped. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and broke its one-month widening streak. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. As the one-month rate had the largest increase in both absolute and relative terms, the yield curve narrowed from the bottom increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, April 2018
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm201804.png)
Short, medium, and long-term rates all rose from the previous month. The yield curve widened from the previous month and broke its one-month narrowing streak. The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. As the one-month rate had the smallest increase in both absolute and relative terms, the yield curve widened reducing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates. Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.
Treasury Rate Movements, March 2018
![US Treasury Rates by Maturity US treasury rates by maturity](/img/bm201803.png)
Short-term rates rose from the previous month, while long-term rates fell and medium-term rates were mixed. The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and broke its two month widening streak. Although the one-month bill rose the most, it maintained the lowest rate throughout the month. However, the yield curve has been narrowing from the short-term end for quite a while now and an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession. No inversion has occurred yet since this rise in short-term rates kicked off in late 2016.
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