Treasury Rate Movements, September 2018

Oct 2, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates rose in September.  The yield curve remained the same as the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak at four-months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  All rates rose at a somewhat similar pace to each other keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates at the same level as the previous month.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, August 2018

Sep 6, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

All short-term rates and the one-year rate rose in August while all other medium-term and long-term rates dropped.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to four-months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  Short-term rates rose at a similar pace to the drop in long-term rates thus the yield curve narrowed equally from the bottom and the top keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates the same.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, July 2018

Aug 2, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates rose in July.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to three-months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  Short-term rates rose more rapidly than long-term rates thus the yield curve narrowed mostly from the bottom increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, June 2018

Jul 13, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

The 30-year rate was the only one to drop in June while the three-month and the 20-year rates remained steady and all other rates rose.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to two-months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  Although short-term rates rose, they did not rise as rapidly as the 30-year dropped and thus the yield curve narrowed mostly from the top decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, May 2018

Jun 5, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates rose in May while medium and long-term rates dropped.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and broke its one-month widening streak.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  As the one-month rate had the largest increase in both absolute and relative terms, the yield curve narrowed from the bottom increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, April 2018

May 4, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

Short, medium, and long-term rates all rose from the previous month.  The yield curve widened from the previous month and broke its one-month narrowing streak.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  As the one-month rate had the smallest increase in both absolute and relative terms, the yield curve widened reducing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, March 2018

Apr 4, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates rose from the previous month, while long-term rates fell and medium-term rates were mixed.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and broke its two month widening streak.  Although the one-month bill rose the most, it maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  However, the yield curve has been narrowing from the short-term end for quite a while now and an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.  No inversion has occurred yet since this rise in short-term rates kicked off in late 2016.

Treasury Rate Movements, February 2018

Mar 5, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

Short, medium, and long-term rates rose from the previous month.  The yield curve widened a bit from the previous month and is on a two month widening streak.  The one-month bill had maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.

Treasury Rate Movements, January 2018

Feb 2, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

Short, medium, and long-term rates rose from the previous month.  The yield curve widened a bit from the previous month reversing direction as it had narrowed in December.  The one-month bill had one session where it held a higher rate than the three-month bill.

A Look Back at Treasuries in 2017

Jan 4, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates took a dramatic turn upwards after being stuck at zero for several years while long-term rates continued their slow and steady decline.  The yield curve continued to narrow but it also narrowed from the bottom up.  A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.


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