Treasury Rate Movements, March 2018

Apr 4, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates rose from the previous month, while long-term rates fell and medium-term rates were mixed.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and broke its two month widening streak.  Although the one-month bill rose the most, it maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  However, the yield curve has been narrowing from the short-term end for quite a while now and an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.  No inversion has occurred yet since this rise in short-term rates kicked off in late 2016.

Treasury Rate Movements, February 2018

Mar 5, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

Short, medium, and long-term rates rose from the previous month.  The yield curve widened a bit from the previous month and is on a two month widening streak.  The one-month bill had maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.

Treasury Rate Movements, January 2018

Feb 2, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

Short, medium, and long-term rates rose from the previous month.  The yield curve widened a bit from the previous month reversing direction as it had narrowed in December.  The one-month bill had one session where it held a higher rate than the three-month bill.

A Look Back at Treasuries in 2017

Jan 4, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates took a dramatic turn upwards after being stuck at zero for several years while long-term rates continued their slow and steady decline.  The yield curve continued to narrow but it also narrowed from the bottom up.  A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, December 2017

Jan 3, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates and medium-term rates continued to rise in December while long-term rates dropped from the previous month.  The yield curve continued to narrow as it had in the previous month.  Short-term rates have increased their rise in rates but the one-month bill had no sessions with higher rates than the three-month bill.  That is, the one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  However, the yield curve narrowed from both the short and long-term.  A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, November 2017

Dec 1, 2017
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates continued their rise in November while medium-term rates rose slower and long-term rates dropped from the previous month.  The yield curve continued to narrow as it had in the previous month.  Short-term rates have increased their rise in rates but the one-month bill had no sessions with higher rates than the three-month bill.  That is, the one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  However, the yield curve narrowed from the bottom up and that has been a steadfast indicator of recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, October 2017

Nov 1, 2017
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates continued their steady rise in October and medium and long-term rates tempered their rise from the previous month.  The yield curve narrowed after widening in the previous month.  Short-term rates have slowed their rise in rates but October breaks with the previous two months where the one-month bill had a session with higher rates than the three-month bill.  That is, the one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month for the first time in three months.  That is a promising sign as a narrowing of the yield curve from the bottom up has been a steadfast indicator of recession.  All rates rose in October.

Treasury Rate Movements, September 2017

Oct 3, 2017
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates resumed their steady rise in September and medium and long-term rates returned to their relatively more rapid rise.  The yield curve widened after narrowing further in the previous month.  Short-term rates have slowed their rise in rates but September marks the second month in a row where the one-month bill had a session with higher rates than the three-month bill and an inversion of the yield curve from the bottom up has been a steadfast indicator of recession.  No inversion has occurred yet but special attention needs to be paid to short-term rates in the near future.  All rates rose in September.

Treasury Rate Movements, August 2017

Sep 1, 2017
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates paused their steady rise in August but medium and long-term rates began to fall.  The yield curve continues to shrink but it only indicates a recession if it shrinks from the bottom up.  The upward tick in the short-term maturities' rates pause is promising as it is a decent indicator that a recession is not on the horizon.  All rates fell in August with the exception of the one-year note which rose slightly.

Treasury Rate Movements, July 2017

Aug 22, 2017
US treasury rates by maturity

The month of July found short-term maturities' rates continuing their upward trend that started earlier in the year.  Long-term maturities' rates have leveled off after dropping slightly earlier in the year.  The upward tick in the short-term maturities' rates is troubling as it is a decent indicator of an ensuing recession.  Only three out of eleven previous upticks in short-term rates have not led to an inversion of the yield curve.


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