EU Long-Term Interest Rates, September 2019

Nov 5, 2019
Long-Term Interest Rates in EU States

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of September 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Thirteen states have a negative interest rate (same as 13 last month and up from zero last year).

Treasury Rate Movements, October 2019

Nov 4, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All bill and note rates fell except for the ten-year note which along with all bond rates rose in October.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak at three months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate at any point in the month.  Long-term rates rose while short-term rates dropped thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

EU Long-Term Interest Rates, August 2019

Oct 3, 2019
Long-Term Interest Rates in EU States

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of August 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Thirteen states have a negative interest rate (up from nine last month and zero last year).

Treasury Rate Movements, September 2019

Oct 2, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All bill rates fell while all note and bond rates rose in September.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to three months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate at any point in the month but did hold the highest rate on several sessions.  Long-term rates rose while short-term rates dropped, to such a degree that the inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates in the previous month ebbed.  Such an inversion is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

EU Long-Term Interest Rates, July 2019

Sep 5, 2019
Long-Term Interest Rates in EU States

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of July 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Nine states have a negative interest rate (up from five last month and zero last year).

Treasury Rate Movements, August 2019

Sep 4, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates except for the one-month bill fell in August.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate at any point in the month but did hold the highest rate on several sessions.  Long-term rates fell at an equal or faster pace than short-term rates, to such a degree that an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates occurred.  Such an inversion is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

EU Long-Term Interest Rates, June 2019

Aug 8, 2019
Long-Term Interest Rates in EU States

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of June 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Five states have a negative interest rate.

Treasury Rate Movements, July 2019

Aug 7, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates except for the one and three-month bills rose in July.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its one month widening streak.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate at any point in the month.  Long-term rates rose at an equal or faster pace than short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.  A side note: several financial analysts have recently pointed to inversions between particular rates like the three-year note having a higher rate than the five-year note as being indicators for a recession.  The data does not back this up.  The only type of inversion that has led to a recession reliably is one in which the highest rate is a shorter-term treasury than the lowest rate.  This is the only inversion that has predicted a recession seven out of eight times since 1962.  According to this measure, there is no recession in the foreseeable future.

EU Long-Term Interest Rates, May 2019

Jul 4, 2019
Long-Term Interest Rates in EU States

The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of May 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior.  Germany continues to be the only state with a negative interest rate.

Treasury Rate Movements, June 2019

Jul 3, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates fell in June.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its one month narrowing streak.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate at any point in the month.  Long-term rates fell at a slower pace than short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.  A side note: several financial analysts have recently pointed to inversions between particular rates like the three-year note having a higher rate than the five-year note as being indicators for a recession.  The data does not back this up.  The only type of inversion that has led to a recession reliably is one in which the highest rate is a shorter-term treasury than the lowest rate.  This is the only inversion that has predicted a recession seven out of eight times since 1962.  According to this measure, there is no recession in the foreseeable future.


Older