A Look Back at Treasuries in 2020

Jan 8, 2021
US Treasury Rates by Maturity

All rates trended downwards for the second year in a row.  The yield curve widened over the course of the year.  A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.

Findings

  • All rates dropped in 2020.
  • The 30-year rate saw the smallest absolute drop at 0.68 points.
  • The six-month rate saw the largest drop at 1.48 points.
  • On a relative basis, the 30-year rate dropped the least with a 29.18 percent drop.
  • The one-month rate dropped the most on relative terms with a 94.77 percent drop.
  • The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the year.
  • The yield curve widened 0.85 points.

Caveats

  • As always, past performance is not indicative of future results.
  • The rates have been at historic lows for quite some time which has not occurred previously.

Details

Range of US Treasury Rates

The breadth of the yield curve widened over the year from a range of 0.80 to a range of 1.65.  The widest range was 1.75 on March 18 and the narrowest range was 0.60 which occurred on February 19, February 20, and February 21.

High Rate and Maturity

The thirty-year bond held the highest rate throughout the year.

Low Rate and Maturity

The one-month bill had trouble holding the lowest rate for a good chunk of the year.

Sources

"Treasury Constant Maturity," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed January 7, 2021, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/115.

"US Business Cycles and Contractions," National Bureau of Economic Research, accessed January 7, 2021, https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions.

Filed under: Economic Data