Treasury Rate Movements, April 2020

May 7, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates except for the one-month bill fell in April.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term rates fell while short-term rates rose thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, March 2020

Apr 6, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates fell in March.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus extending its widening streak to two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  All rates fell thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, February 2020

Mar 4, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates fell in February.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate at any point during the month.  All rates fell thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, January 2020

Feb 5, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-month rate fell in January, the three-month remained unchanged, while all other rates rose.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term rates fell while short-term rates rose thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, December 2019

Jan 8, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

The one, three, and six-month, and the one and two year rates fell in December while all other rates rose.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term rates rose while short-term rates dropped thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

A Look Back at Treasuries in 2019

Jan 7, 2020
US Treasury Rates by Maturity

All rates trended downwards following their dramatic turn upwards the previous year after being stuck at zero for several years.  The yield curve widened over the course of the year.  A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, November 2019

Dec 5, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates rose rose in November.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak at one month.  The one-month bill held the lowest rate three times and shared the lowest rate one time in the month.  All rates rose at an even pace thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, October 2019

Nov 4, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All bill and note rates fell except for the ten-year note which along with all bond rates rose in October.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak at three months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate at any point in the month.  Long-term rates rose while short-term rates dropped thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, September 2019

Oct 2, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All bill rates fell while all note and bond rates rose in September.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to three months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate at any point in the month but did hold the highest rate on several sessions.  Long-term rates rose while short-term rates dropped, to such a degree that the inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates in the previous month ebbed.  Such an inversion is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, August 2019

Sep 4, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates except for the one-month bill fell in August.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate at any point in the month but did hold the highest rate on several sessions.  Long-term rates fell at an equal or faster pace than short-term rates, to such a degree that an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates occurred.  Such an inversion is a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.


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