Treasury Rate Movements, June 2021

Jul 8, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The seven-year, ten-year, 20-year, and 30-year rates fell, while all other rates rose in June.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to three months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were moves upwards on short-term rates thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, May 2021

Jun 7, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-month, three-month, six-month, and one-year rates remained the same, while all other rates fell in May.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to two months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month but it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, April 2021

May 5, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-month, two-year, and three-year rates remained the same, while all other rates fell in April.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak of four months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, March 2021

Apr 7, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-month, three-month, and one-year rates fell, the six-month remained the same, while all other rates rose in March.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus extending its widening streak to four months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, February 2021

Mar 5, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-month, three-month, six-month, and one-year rates fell, while all other rates rose in February.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus extending its widening streak to three months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month although it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, January 2021

Feb 2, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-month, three-month, six-month, and two-year rates fell, the one-year rate stayed the same, and all other rates rose in January.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus extending its widening streak to two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

A Look Back at Treasuries in 2020

Jan 8, 2021
US Treasury Rates by Maturity

All rates trended downwards for the second year in a row.  The yield curve widened over the course of the year.  A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, December 2020

Jan 7, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-year, two-year, and three-year rates fell, the one-month, six-month, and five-year rates stayed the same, and all other rates rose in December.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, November 2020

Dec 7, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

The two-year rate rose, the one-month and three-year rates stayed the same, and all other rates fell in November.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, October 2020

Nov 9, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

The three-month rate fell, the one-month and six-month rates stayed the same, and all other rates rose in October.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and shared it with the three-month on several occasions.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.


Older