Treasury Rate Movements, March 2019

Apr 4, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates dropped in March.  The yield curve shrank from the previous month thus ending its one month widening streak.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term rates fell at a faster pace than short-term rates thus neutralizing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.  A side note: several financial analysts have recently pointed to inversions between particular rates like the three-year note having a higher rate than the five-year note as being indicators for a recession.  The data does not back this up.  The only type of inversion that has led to a recession reliably is one in which the highest rate is a shorter-term treasury than the lowest rate.  This is the only inversion that has predicted a recession seven out of eight times since 1962.  According to this measure, there is no recession in the foreseeable future.

Treasury Rate Movements, February 2019

Mar 13, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates except for the one-year rose in February.  The yield curve rose from the previous month thus ending its even streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term rates rose at a faster pace than short-term rates thus neutralizing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, January 2019

Feb 6, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates dropped in January.  The yield curve remained flat from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term and short-term rates dropped at about the same pace thus neutralizing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

A Look Back at Treasuries in 2018

Jan 7, 2019
US Treasury Rates by Maturity

Short-term rates continued their dramatic turn upwards after being stuck at zero for several years while long-term rates made steady advances as well.  The yield curve continued to narrow and it also narrowed from the bottom up.  A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, December 2018

Jan 4, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

The one, three, and six-month rates rose in December while all other rates dropped.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term rates fell while short-term rates rose thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, November 2018

Dec 4, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

The one, three, and six-month, and the one-year rates rose in November while all other rates dropped.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its one month widening streak.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term rates fell while short-term rates rose thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, October 2018

Nov 2, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates rose in October.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its two month steady streak.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  All rates rose at a somewhat similar pace to each other keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates at the same level as the previous month.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, September 2018

Oct 2, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates rose in September.  The yield curve remained the same as the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak at four-months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  All rates rose at a somewhat similar pace to each other keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates at the same level as the previous month.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, August 2018

Sep 6, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

All short-term rates and the one-year rate rose in August while all other medium-term and long-term rates dropped.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to four-months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  Short-term rates rose at a similar pace to the drop in long-term rates thus the yield curve narrowed equally from the bottom and the top keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates the same.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, July 2018

Aug 2, 2018
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates rose in July.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to three-months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  Short-term rates rose more rapidly than long-term rates thus the yield curve narrowed mostly from the bottom increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.


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