Treasury Rate Movements, November 2017

Dec 1, 2017
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates continued their rise in November while medium-term rates rose slower and long-term rates dropped from the previous month.  The yield curve continued to narrow as it had in the previous month.  Short-term rates have increased their rise in rates but the one-month bill had no sessions with higher rates than the three-month bill.  That is, the one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  However, the yield curve narrowed from the bottom up and that has been a steadfast indicator of recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, October 2017

Nov 1, 2017
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates continued their steady rise in October and medium and long-term rates tempered their rise from the previous month.  The yield curve narrowed after widening in the previous month.  Short-term rates have slowed their rise in rates but October breaks with the previous two months where the one-month bill had a session with higher rates than the three-month bill.  That is, the one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month for the first time in three months.  That is a promising sign as a narrowing of the yield curve from the bottom up has been a steadfast indicator of recession.  All rates rose in October.

Treasury Rate Movements, September 2017

Oct 3, 2017
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates resumed their steady rise in September and medium and long-term rates returned to their relatively more rapid rise.  The yield curve widened after narrowing further in the previous month.  Short-term rates have slowed their rise in rates but September marks the second month in a row where the one-month bill had a session with higher rates than the three-month bill and an inversion of the yield curve from the bottom up has been a steadfast indicator of recession.  No inversion has occurred yet but special attention needs to be paid to short-term rates in the near future.  All rates rose in September.

Treasury Rate Movements, August 2017

Sep 1, 2017
US treasury rates by maturity

Short-term rates paused their steady rise in August but medium and long-term rates began to fall.  The yield curve continues to shrink but it only indicates a recession if it shrinks from the bottom up.  The upward tick in the short-term maturities' rates pause is promising as it is a decent indicator that a recession is not on the horizon.  All rates fell in August with the exception of the one-year note which rose slightly.

Treasury Rate Movements, July 2017

Aug 22, 2017
US treasury rates by maturity

The month of July found short-term maturities' rates continuing their upward trend that started earlier in the year.  Long-term maturities' rates have leveled off after dropping slightly earlier in the year.  The upward tick in the short-term maturities' rates is troubling as it is a decent indicator of an ensuing recession.  Only three out of eleven previous upticks in short-term rates have not led to an inversion of the yield curve.

Treasury Rates and Recessions, a Historic View

Aug 21, 2017
US treasury rates by maturity

Treasuries have historically been a great indicator for recessions.  The traditional view has been that when the yield curve inverts, a recession is soon on its way.  This bond report will show trends and fluctuations in the treasury market from a new perspective.  Ranges of rates as well as rates by maturity will be charted and analyzed to look for patterns that will help identify changes in the overall economy.