A Look Back at Treasuries in 2021

Jan 6, 2022
US Treasury Rates by Maturity

The one-month and three-month rates trended downwards for the third year in a row while all other rates went up ending their downward trend at two years.  The yield curve widened over the course of the year.  A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, December 2021

Jan 5, 2022
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-month rate fell while all other rates rose in December.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak at two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate.  There were no major moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, November 2021

Dec 8, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The five-year, seven-year, 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year rates fell, the three-month rate stayed the same, while all other rates rose in November.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were moves upwards on short-term rates thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, October 2021

Nov 2, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-month, 20-year, and 30-year rates fell while all other rates rose in October.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak at two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were moves upwards on short-term rates thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, September 2021

Oct 13, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The six-month rate fell, the three-month rate stayed the same, while all other rates rose in September.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus extending its widening streak to two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were moves upwards on short-term rates thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, August 2021

Sep 2, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-month and three-month rates fell, the one-year rate stayed the same, while all other rates rose in August.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of four months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month but it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, July 2021

Aug 5, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The three-month rate rose, the one-month and one-year rates stayed the same, while all other rates fell in July.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to four months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were moves upwards on short-term rates thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, June 2021

Jul 8, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The seven-year, ten-year, 20-year, and 30-year rates fell, while all other rates rose in June.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to three months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were moves upwards on short-term rates thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, May 2021

Jun 7, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-month, three-month, six-month, and one-year rates remained the same, while all other rates fell in May.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to two months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month but it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, April 2021

May 5, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-month, two-year, and three-year rates remained the same, while all other rates fell in April.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak of four months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and it shared the lowest rate on multiple occasions.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.


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