A Look Back at Treasuries in 2020

Jan 8, 2021
US Treasury Rates by Maturity

All rates trended downwards for the second year in a row.  The yield curve widened over the course of the year.  A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, December 2020

Jan 7, 2021
US treasury rates by maturity

The one-year, two-year, and three-year rates fell, the one-month, six-month, and five-year rates stayed the same, and all other rates rose in December.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, November 2020

Dec 7, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

The two-year rate rose, the one-month and three-year rates stayed the same, and all other rates fell in November.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, October 2020

Nov 9, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

The three-month rate fell, the one-month and six-month rates stayed the same, and all other rates rose in October.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month and shared it with the three-month on several occasions.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, September 2020

Oct 2, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

The three-year rate rose, the one-month, one-year, and five-year rates stayed the same, and all other rates dropped in September.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak of one month.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month but shared it with the three-month on one occasion.  There were no moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, August 2020

Sep 4, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates except for the one-month bill rose in August.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  There were no drastic moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, July 2020

Aug 7, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates fell in July.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its steady streak of one month.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  There were no drastic moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, June 2020

Jul 2, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

The one, three, five, and seven-year rates fell while the one and six-month and the two, 20, and 30-year rates remained the same, and the three-month and ten-year rates rose in June.  The yield curve remained unchanged from the previous month thus ending its widening streak of one month.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  There were no drastic moves upwards on short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, May 2020

Jun 4, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates except for the two, three, five, and seven-year notes rose in May.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of one month.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term and short-term rates rose while medium-term rates rose thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Treasury Rate Movements, April 2020

May 7, 2020
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates except for the one-month bill fell in April.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its widening streak.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term rates fell while short-term rates rose thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.


OlderNewer