All rates dropped in January.  The yield curve remained flat from the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak of two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term and short-term rates dropped at about the same pace thus neutralizing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Short-term rates continued their dramatic turn upwards after being stuck at zero for several years while long-term rates made steady advances as well.  The yield curve continued to narrow and it also narrowed from the bottom up.  A narrowing from the short-term is a warning sign for an inversion that indicates recession.

The one, three, and six-month rates rose in December while all other rates dropped.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus extending its narrowing streak to two months.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term rates fell while short-term rates rose thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

The one, three, and six-month, and the one-year rates rose in November while all other rates dropped.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its one month widening streak.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  Long-term rates fell while short-term rates rose thus increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

All rates rose in October.  The yield curve widened from the previous month thus ending its two month steady streak.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  All rates rose at a somewhat similar pace to each other keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates at the same level as the previous month.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

All rates rose in September.  The yield curve remained the same as the previous month thus ending its narrowing streak at four-months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  All rates rose at a somewhat similar pace to each other keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates at the same level as the previous month.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

All short-term rates and the one-year rate rose in August while all other medium-term and long-term rates dropped.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to four-months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  Short-term rates rose at a similar pace to the drop in long-term rates thus the yield curve narrowed equally from the bottom and the top keeping the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates the same.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

All rates rose in July.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to three-months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  Short-term rates rose more rapidly than long-term rates thus the yield curve narrowed mostly from the bottom increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

The 30-year rate was the only one to drop in June while the three-month and the 20-year rates remained steady and all other rates rose.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and extended its narrowing streak to two-months.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  Although short-term rates rose, they did not rise as rapidly as the 30-year dropped and thus the yield curve narrowed mostly from the top decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.

Short-term rates rose in May while medium and long-term rates dropped.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month and broke its one-month widening streak.  The one-month bill maintained the lowest rate throughout the month.  As the one-month rate had the largest increase in both absolute and relative terms, the yield curve narrowed from the bottom increasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.