Treasury Rate Movements, July 2019

Aug 7, 2019
US treasury rates by maturity

All rates except for the one and three-month bills rose in July.  The yield curve narrowed from the previous month thus ending its one month widening streak.  The one-month bill did not maintain the lowest rate at any point in the month.  Long-term rates rose at an equal or faster pace than short-term rates thus decreasing the risk of an inversion brought upon by rising short-term rates.  Such an inversion, if it were to happen would be a strong indicator for an upcoming recession.  A side note: several financial analysts have recently pointed to inversions between particular rates like the three-year note having a higher rate than the five-year note as being indicators for a recession.  The data does not back this up.  The only type of inversion that has led to a recession reliably is one in which the highest rate is a shorter-term treasury than the lowest rate.  This is the only inversion that has predicted a recession seven out of eight times since 1962.  According to this measure, there is no recession in the foreseeable future.

Long-Term EU and US GDP Growth Rate by Region, Fourth Quarter 2018

Aug 6, 2019
Long-Term Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate in EU and US Regions

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate when priced in US dollars in each EU and US region over the past five years as of the fourth quarter of 2018 and the growth over the past ten years.  All negative growth rates in the EU are attributed to currency rate fluctuations.

Long-Term EU GDP Growth Rate by Region, Fourth Quarter 2018

Aug 5, 2019
Long-Term Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate in EU Regions

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in each EU region over the past five years as of the fourth quarter of 2018 and the growth rate over the past ten years.  The Northern EU is the only region whose growth rate was smaller over the past five years than it was over the past ten years.

Long-Term US GDP Growth Rate by Region, Fourth Quarter 2018

Aug 2, 2019
Long-Term Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate in US Regions

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in each US region over the past five years as of the fourth quarter of 2018 and the growth rate over the past ten years.  The West's growth rates outshine the other regions' rates.

Long-Term EU and US GDP Growth Rate by State, Fourth Quarter 2018

Aug 1, 2019
Long-Term Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate in EU and US States

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate when the GDP is priced in US dollars in each EU and US state over the past five years as of the fourth quarter of 2018 and the growth rate over the past ten years.  Only EU states saw a contraction both over the past five and ten years.

Long-Term EU GDP Growth Rate by State, Fourth Quarter 2018

Jul 31, 2019
Long-Term Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate in EU States

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in each EU state over the past five years as of the fourth quarter of 2018 and the growth rate over the past ten years.  Greece is the only state to experience negative growth over either period.

Long-Term US GDP Growth Rate by State, Fourth Quarter 2018

Jul 30, 2019
Long-Term Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate in US States

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in each US state over the past five years as of the fourth quarter of 2018 and the growth rate over the past ten years.  Only two states experienced negative growth in either time period.

Long-Term Per Capita GDP by EU and US Region, Fourth Quarter 2018

Jul 29, 2019
Long-Term Per Capita Gross Domestic Product in EU and US Regions

The chart above shows the per capita annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in each EU and US region as of the fourth quarter of 2018 in US dollars, the change from five years ago, and the per capita GDP ten years prior.  US regions have had a very good past five years.

Long-Term Per Capita GDP by EU Region, Fourth Quarter 2018

Jul 26, 2019
Long-Term Per Capita Gross Domestic Product in EU Regions

The chart above shows the per capita annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in each EU region as of the fourth quarter of 2018 in euros, the change from five years ago, and the per capita GDP ten years prior.  Every single region's economy grew both over the past quarter and the past year.

Long-Term Per Capita GDP by US Region, Fourth Quarter 2018

Jul 25, 2019
Long-Term Per Capita Gross Domestic Product in US Regions

The chart above shows the per capita annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in each US region as of the fourth quarter of 2018 in dollars, the change from five years ago, and the per capita GDP ten years prior.  Every single region's economy grew both over the past five and past ten years.


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