Long-Term EU GDP Growth Rate by Region, Fourth Quarter 2020

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in each EU region over the past five years as of the fourth quarter of 2020 and the growth rate over the past ten years.  All four regions grew over both time periods.

Findings

• The difference between the region with the largest annualized five-year growth rate, the Eastern EU, and the region with the smallest, the Southern EU, is 4.34 percentage points.
• The difference between the region with the largest annualized ten-year growth rate, the Eastern EU, and the region with the smallest, the Southern EU, is 4.16 percentage points.
• Of the four regions, 2 grew faster over the past five years than they did over the past ten years, 0 had the same annualized growth rate over both periods, and 2 grew slower over the past five years than they did over the past ten years.

Caveats

• Data is from the fourth quarters of 2010, 2015, and 2020.
• The data is seasonally adjusted in current euros.
• The data is annualized by multiplying the quarterly figure by four.
• All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
• The Eastern EU consists of Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
• The Northern EU consists of Sweden, Denmark, and Finland.
• The Southern EU consists of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, and Malta.
• The Western EU consists of Germany, United Kingdom, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Ireland, and Luxembourg.

Details

The Southern EU had the worst performance over the past five years with an annualized growth rate of 0.75%.  The Eastern EU had the best performance with an annualized gain of 5.09%.

Over the past ten years, the Southern EU had the worst performance with an annualized growth rate of 0.43% while the Eastern EU had the best performance with a 4.59% rise in GDP.

The Western EU had the worst change in its growth rate between its annualized ten-year growth and its annualized five-year growth slowing its rate by 1.67 percentage points.  The Southern EU had the best change in its growth rate between its annualized ten-year growth and its annualized five-year growth raising its rate by 0.50 percentage points.

The Northern EU had the smallest range in annualized five-year growth rates with a low of 1.07% in Sweden to a high of 3.10% in Denmark.  Conversely, the Western EU had the greatest range in annualized five-year growth rates with a low of -1.97% in the United Kingdom to a high of 7.16% in Ireland.  Over the past ten years, the Northern EU had the smallest range in growth rates with a low of 2.32% in Finland to a high of 2.85% in Denmark.  The Southern EU on the other hand, had the greatest range of rates on a ten-year basis with a low of -2.44% in Greece to a high of 9.03% in Malta.

Sources

Eurostat.  2021.  "GDP and Main Components."  Accessed May 10, 2021.  https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-406779_QID_-C88959A_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;UNIT,L,Z,0;S_ADJ,L,Z,1;NA_ITEM,L,Z,2;INDICATORS,C,Z,3;&zSelection=DS-406779UNIT,CP_MEUR;DS-406779INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-406779NA_ITEM,B1GQ;DS-406779S_ADJ,SCA;&rankName1=UNIT_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=NA-ITEM_1_2_-1_2&rankName4=S-ADJ_1_2_-1_2&rankName5=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName6=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.

Federal Reserve.  2021.  "Foreign Exchange Rates."  Accessed March 31, 2021.  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/.

Office for National Statistics.  2021.  "Gross Domestic Product at market prices: Current price: Seasonally adjusted £m - Office for National Statistics."  Accessed March 31, 2021.  https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ybha/ukea.