Long-Term EU GDP Growth Rate by State, Fourth Quarter 2020

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in each EU state over the past five years as of the fourth quarter of 2020 and the growth rate over the past ten years.  Two states experienced negative growth either in the past five years or in the past ten years.

Findings

• The difference between the state with the largest annualized five-year growth rate, Romania, and the state with the smallest, the United Kingdom, is 10.11 percentage points.
• The difference between the state with the largest annualized ten-year growth rate, Ireland, and the state with the smallest, Greece, is 14.69 percentage points.
• The median annualized five-year growth rate in the 28 EU states is 3.36% and the mean 3.42%.
• The median annualized ten-year growth rate in the 28 EU states is 2.82% and the mean 3.79%.
• Of the 28 states, 13 grew faster over the past five years than they did over the past ten years, 0 had the same annualized growth rate over both periods, and 15 grew slower over the past five years than they did over the past ten years.

Caveats

• Data is from the fourth quarters of 2010, 2015, and 2020.
• The data is seasonally adjusted in current euros.
• The data is annualized by multiplying the quarterly figure by four.
• All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.

Details

The United Kingdom had the worst performance over the past five years with an annualized growth rate of -1.97%.  Romania had the best performance with an annualized gain of 8.13%.

Over the past ten years, Greece had the worst performance with an annualized growth rate of -2.44% while Ireland had the best performance with an annualized growth rate of 12.25%.

Ireland saw the worst change in its growth rate between its annualized ten-year growth and its annualized five-year growth slowing its rate by 5.08 percentage points.  Cyprus had the best change in its growth rate between its annualized ten-year growth and its annualized five-year growth raising its rate by 2.41 percentage points.

Cyprus went from having the 26th largest growth rate over the past ten years to the 15th largest growth rate over the past five years.  Conversely, the United Kingdom went from having the 16th highest growth rate over the past ten years to the 28th highest growth rate over the past five years.  Four states had annualized growth rates in the top five both over the past ten years and over the past five years: Romania (3rd highest ten-year, highest five-year), Ireland (highest ten-year growth rate, 2nd highest five-year growth rate), Estonia (4th highest ten-year, 4th highest five-year), and Lithuania (5th highest ten-year, 5th highest five-year).  Three states had growth rates in the bottom five both over both periods: Spain (25th ten-year, 24th five-year), Italy (27th ten-year, 26th five-year), and Greece (28th ten-year, 27th five year).

Sources

Eurostat.  2021.  "GDP and Main Components."  Accessed May 10, 2021.  https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-406779_QID_-C88959A_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;UNIT,L,Z,0;S_ADJ,L,Z,1;NA_ITEM,L,Z,2;INDICATORS,C,Z,3;&zSelection=DS-406779UNIT,CP_MEUR;DS-406779INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-406779NA_ITEM,B1GQ;DS-406779S_ADJ,SCA;&rankName1=UNIT_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=NA-ITEM_1_2_-1_2&rankName4=S-ADJ_1_2_-1_2&rankName5=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName6=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.

Federal Reserve.  2021.  "Foreign Exchange Rates."  Accessed March 31, 2021.  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/.

Office for National Statistics.  2021.  "Gross Domestic Product at market prices: Current price: Seasonally adjusted £m - Office for National Statistics."  Accessed March 31, 2021.  https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ybha/ukea.