The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of September 2020, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Thirteen states have a negative interest rate (same as 13 last month and same as 13 last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the state with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 4.01 percentage points (down from 4.40 last month and down from 4.71 last year). Denmark and Germany had the lowest rate last year and Germany had the lowest rate last month. Romania had the highest rate last year and last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.16 (same as 0.16 the previous month and down from 0.18 last year) and the mean 0.36 (down from 0.40 the previous month and down from 0.39 last year).
- Four states saw no change in the long-term interest rate from the previous month, 19 saw the rate decrease, and four saw the rate increase.
- Two states saw no change in the long-term interest rate from last year, 12 saw the rate decrease, and 13 saw the rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from September 2020, August 2020, and September 2019.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Romania saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.39 percentage points. On the flip side, Hungary saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.21 percentage points. Year over year, Poland saw its rate drop the most with a 0.67 percentage point drop while Hungary saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.37 percentage points.
France (from 10th lowest rate to 9th lowest rate), Sweden (from 13th to 12th), Bulgaria (from 16th to 15th), Cyprus (from 21st to 20th), and Italy (from 23rd to 22nd) each went up one spot over the course of the month. Conversely, Latvia (from 9th to 10th), the United Kingdom (from 15th to 16th), and Croatia (from 20th to 21st) dropped the most being bested by one state each.
Over the course of the year, the United Kingdom (from 21st to 16th) rose the most besting five states. On the flip side, Malta (from 15th to 19th) was bested by four states.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was 1.70% in September 2019, 0.65% in August 2020, and 0.68% in September 2020, meaning that Cyprus, Croatia, Czechia, Italy, Greece, Poland, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was -0.23% in September 2019, 0.03% in August 2020, and 0.02% in September 2020 being bested by Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Finland, Slovakia, Belgium, France, Latvia, Ireland, Slovenia, and Sweden.
Data
| State | September 2019 | August 2020 | September 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | -0.3 | -0.28 | -0.32 |
| Belgium | -0.24 | -0.21 | -0.25 |
| Bulgaria | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.2 |
| Croatia | 0.49 | 0.85 | 0.79 |
| Cyprus | 0.48 | 0.89 | 0.72 |
| Czechia | 1.24 | 0.95 | 0.98 |
| Denmark | -0.59 | -0.36 | -0.39 |
| Finland | -0.3 | -0.25 | -0.3 |
| France | -0.28 | -0.17 | -0.21 |
| Germany | -0.59 | -0.52 | -0.52 |
| Greece | 1.5 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Hungary | 2.02 | 2.18 | 2.39 |
| Ireland | -0.01 | -0.12 | -0.13 |
| Italy | 0.9 | 1.03 | 0.98 |
| Latvia | -0.11 | -0.19 | -0.2 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Luxembourg | -0.5 | -0.45 | -0.5 |
| Malta | 0.19 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Netherlands | -0.43 | -0.41 | -0.44 |
| Poland | 2.02 | 1.32 | 1.35 |
| Portugal | 0.2 | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| Romania | 4.12 | 3.88 | 3.49 |
| Slovakia | -0.34 | -0.22 | -0.27 |
| Slovenia | -0.16 | -0.1 | -0.08 |
| Spain | 0.18 | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Sweden | -0.23 | -0.04 | -0.08 |
| United Kingdom | 0.58 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2020. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed November 10, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_43F0943E_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2020. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed November 10, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_55358AEF_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.