The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of August 2020, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Thirteen states have a negative interest rate (up from 12 last month and same as 13 last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the state with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 4.40 percentage points (down from 4.46 last month and down from 4.77 last year). Germany had the lowest rate last year and last month. Romania had the highest rate last year and last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.16 (up from 0.15 the previous month and up from 0.14 last year) and the mean 0.40 (down from 0.45 the previous month and same as 0.40 last year).
- Two states saw no change in the long-term interest rate from the previous month, 22 saw the rate decrease, and three states saw the rate increase.
- Zero states saw no change in the long-term interest rate from last year, 11 saw the rate decrease, and 16 states saw the rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from August 2020, July 2020, and August 2019.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Bulgaria saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.24 percentage points. On the flip side, Czechia saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.09 percentage points. Year over year, Greece saw its rate drop the most with a 0.90 percentage point drop while Cyprus saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.45 percentage points.
Slovakia (from 9th lowest rate to 7th lowest rate), Bulgaria (from 18th to 16th), and Croatia (from 22nd to 20th) each went up two spots over the course of the month. Conversely, Latvia (from 7th to 9th), Sweden (from 11th to 13th), and Czechia (from 20th to 22nd) dropped the most being bested by two states each.
Over the course of the year, the United Kingdom (from 20th to 15th) rose the most besting five states. On the flip side, Sweden (from 6th to 13th) was bested by seven states.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was 1.63% in August 2019, 0.62% in July 2020, and 0.65% in August 2020, meaning that Malta, Czechia, Cyprus, Croatia, Greece, Italy, Poland, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was -0.23% in August 2019, 0.02% in July 2020, and 0.03% in August 2020 being bested by Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Finland, Belgium, Latvia, Slovakia, France, Sweden, and Ireland.
Data
| State | August 2019 | July 2020 | August 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | -0.37 | -0.25 | -0.28 |
| Belgium | -0.28 | -0.17 | -0.21 |
| Bulgaria | 0.35 | 0.5 | 0.26 |
| Croatia | 0.83 | 0.97 | 0.85 |
| Cyprus | 0.44 | 0.95 | 0.89 |
| Czechia | 0.99 | 0.86 | 0.95 |
| Denmark | -0.58 | -0.34 | -0.36 |
| Finland | -0.35 | -0.21 | -0.25 |
| France | -0.34 | -0.15 | -0.17 |
| Germany | -0.65 | -0.52 | -0.52 |
| Greece | 1.98 | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| Hungary | 1.83 | 2.23 | 2.18 |
| Ireland | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.12 |
| Italy | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.03 |
| Latvia | -0.07 | -0.17 | -0.19 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Luxembourg | -0.54 | -0.43 | -0.45 |
| Malta | 0.21 | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| Netherlands | -0.5 | -0.39 | -0.41 |
| Poland | 1.93 | 1.33 | 1.32 |
| Portugal | 0.17 | 0.4 | 0.36 |
| Romania | 4.12 | 3.94 | 3.88 |
| Slovakia | -0.34 | -0.16 | -0.22 |
| Slovenia | -0.06 | 0.09 | -0.1 |
| Spain | 0.14 | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| Sweden | -0.36 | -0.07 | -0.04 |
| United Kingdom | 0.49 | 0.15 | 0.21 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2020. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed October 5, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_-4ECE5A2B_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2020. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed October 5, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_-6EDCDDDE_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.