The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of June 2020, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Eight states have a negative interest rate (same as eight last month and up from five last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the state with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 4.32 percentage points (down from 5.06 last month and down from 4.90 last year). Germany had the lowest rate last year and last month. Romania had the highest rate last year and last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.23 (down from 0.31 the previous month and down from 0.32 last year) and the mean 0.55 (down from 0.67 the previous month and down from 0.82 last year).
- Zero states saw no change in their long-term interest rate from the previous month, 18 saw their rate decrease, and nine states saw their rate increase.
- Zero states saw no change in their long-term interest rate from last year, 21 saw their rate decrease, and six states saw their rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from June 2020, May 2020, and June 2019.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Romania saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.65 percentage points. On the flip side, Bulgaria saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.48 percentage points. Year over year, Greece saw its rate drop the most with a 1.35 percentage point drop while Bulgaria saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.36 percentage points.
Latvia (from 13th lowest rate to 9th lowest rate) and Slovakia (from 15th to 11th) each went up four spots over the course of the month. Conversely, Bulgaria (from 11th to 18th) dropped the most being bested by seven states.
Over the course of the year, Latvia (from 15th to 9th) and the United Kingdom (from 20th to 14th) rose the most besting six states each. On the flip side, Slovenia (from 10th to 15th) was bested by five states.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was 2.07% in June 2019, 0.67% in May 2020, and 0.72% in June 2020, meaning that Malta, Spain, Slovenia, Portugal, Croatia, Czechia, Poland, Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was -0.13% in June 2019, 0.00% in May 2020, and 0.02% in June 2020 being bested by Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Austria, Sweden, and France.
Data
| State | June 2019 | May 2020 | June 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.03 | -0.1 | -0.13 |
| Belgium | 0.15 | 0.04 | -0.04 |
| Bulgaria | 0.32 | 0.2 | 0.68 |
| Croatia | 1.36 | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| Cyprus | 0.82 | 1.69 | 1.05 |
| Czechia | 1.58 | 0.92 | 0.86 |
| Denmark | -0.22 | -0.29 | -0.26 |
| Finland | 0.05 | -0.12 | -0.18 |
| France | 0.08 | -0.03 | -0.04 |
| Germany | -0.31 | -0.52 | -0.43 |
| Greece | 2.67 | 1.93 | 1.32 |
| Hungary | 2.74 | 1.99 | 2.18 |
| Ireland | 0.27 | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| Italy | 2.28 | 1.76 | 1.46 |
| Latvia | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.01 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| Luxembourg | -0.16 | -0.32 | -0.34 |
| Malta | 0.73 | 0.7 | 0.76 |
| Netherlands | -0.09 | -0.31 | -0.29 |
| Poland | 2.35 | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| Portugal | 0.59 | 0.81 | 0.53 |
| Romania | 4.59 | 4.54 | 3.89 |
| Slovakia | 0.25 | 0.56 | 0.04 |
| Slovenia | 0.19 | 0.74 | 0.42 |
| Spain | 0.5 | 0.74 | 0.51 |
| Sweden | -0.09 | -0.06 | 0.01 |
| United Kingdom | 0.84 | 0.22 | 0.23 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2020. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed August 10, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_-5D5CC630_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2020. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed August 10, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_-2E5FF1A3_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.