EU and US GDP Growth Rate by Region, First Quarter 2020

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate in each EU and US region as of the first quarter of 2020 and the growth rate from one year prior.  All eight regions had negative growth over the past quarter.

Findings

• The difference between the region with the largest annualized quarterly growth rate, the Western US, and the region with the smallest, the Southern EU, is 19.72 percentage points.
• The difference between the region with the largest year-over-year growth rate, the Western US, and the region with the smallest, the Southern EU, is 9.31 percentage points.
• Zero regions (0 EU, 0 US) saw a faster growth rate over the previous quarter than over the same quarter the previous year.  Eight regions (4 EU, 4 US) experienced slower growth over the previous quarter than over the same quarter last year.
• Some EU drops in growth rate are attributed to currency rate fluctuations.

Caveats

• Data is from the first quarter of 2019, the fourth quarter of 2019, and the first quarter of 2020.
• The data is seasonally adjusted in current dollars.
• Euros are converted to dollars at an average exchange rate of 1.14 for the first quarter of 2019, 1.11 for the fourth quarter of 2019, and 1.10 for the first quarter of 2020 according to historic rates listed at the Federal Reserve (see source link below).
• US data comes in an annualized format which the EU does not, thus EU data is annualized by multiplying the quarterly figure by four.
• US growth rates may differ from those provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as the BEA's growth rates are based on chained dollars in conjunction with the chain index or the quality index for real GDP.  The growth rates listed here are based on nominal GDP.
• All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
• The Eastern EU consists of Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
• The Midwestern US consists of Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.
• The Northeastern US consists of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Delaware, Maine, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
• The Northern EU consists of Sweden, Denmark, and Finland.
• The Southern EU consists of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, and Malta.
• The Southern US consists of Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Louisiana, South Carolina, Alabama, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, and West Virginia.
• The Western EU consists of Germany, United Kingdom, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Ireland, and Luxembourg.
• The Western US consists of California, Washington, Colorado, Arizona, Oregon, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, Hawaii, Idaho, Alaska, Montana, and Wyoming.

Details

The Southern EU had the worst performance over the previous quarter with an annualized gain of -22.64%.  The Western US had the best performance with an annualized gain of -2.92%.

Year over year, the Southern EU had the worst performance with a 6.84% drop in GDP while the Western US had the best performance with a 2.47% rise in GDP.

The Southern EU saw the worst change in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth slowing its rate by 15.80 percentage points.  The Northern EU had the best change in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth slowing its rate by 1.84 percentage points.

The Northeastern US had the smallest range in annualized quarterly growth rates with a low of -5.04% in New York to a high of -1.68% in Delaware.  Conversely, the Western EU had the greatest range in annualized quarterly growth rates with a low of -20.92% in France to a high of 2.32% in Ireland.  Year-over-year, the Northeastern US had the smallest range in growth rates with a low of 1.29% in New York to a high of 2.44% in Delaware.  The Western EU on the other hand, had the greatest range of rates on a year-over-year basis with a low of -6.47% in France to a high of 2.38% in Ireland.

Sources

Eurostat.  2020.  "GDP and Main Components."  Accessed July 15, 2020.  https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-406779_QID_-65D7EB62_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;UNIT,L,Z,0;S_ADJ,L,Z,1;NA_ITEM,L,Z,2;INDICATORS,C,Z,3;&zSelection=DS-406779UNIT,CP_MEUR;DS-406779INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-406779S_ADJ,SCA;DS-406779NA_ITEM,B1GQ;&rankName1=UNIT_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=NA-ITEM_1_2_-1_2&rankName4=S-ADJ_1_2_-1_2&rankName5=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName6=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.

Federal Reserve.  2020.  "Foreign Exchange Rates."  Accessed July 16, 2020.  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/.

US Bureau of Economic Analysis.  2020.  "GDP by State."  Accessed July 14, 2020.  https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state.