EU and US GDP Growth Rate by State, First Quarter 2020

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate when the GDP is priced in US dollars in each EU and US state as of the first quarter of 2020 and the growth rate from one year prior.  Ireland, South Dakota, and Nebraska were the only three states to have positive growth over the previous quarter.

Findings

• The difference between the state with the largest annualized quarterly growth rate, Ireland, and the state with the smallest, Italy, is 26.36 percentage points.
• The difference between the state with the largest year-over-year growth rate, Utah, and the state with the smallest, Italy, is 11.56 percentage points.
• The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 28 EU states is -10.54% and the mean -11.30%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 28 EU states is -2.94% and the mean -2.80%.
• The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 50 US states is -3.32% and the mean -3.99%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 50 US states is 2.09% and the mean 1.81%.
• The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 78 EU and US states is -4.14% and the mean -6.62%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 78 EU and US states is 1.62% and the mean 0.15%.
• One state's economy grew faster over the previous quarter than it did over the same quarter last year (1 from the EU, 0 from the US).  Zero states saw the same growth over both time periods.  The remaining 77 states saw their economies grow slower over the previous quarter than they did over the same quarter last year (27 EU, 50 US).
• Some EU drops in GDP growth rate are attributed to currency rate fluctuations.

Caveats

• Data is from the first quarter of 2019, the fourth quarter of 2019, and the first quarter of 2020.
• The data is seasonally and calendar adjusted in current dollars except for Slovakia which is only seasonally adjusted in current dollars.
• Euros are converted to dollars at an average exchange rate of 1.14 for the first quarter of 2019, 1.11 for the fourth quarter of 2019, and 1.10 for the first quarter of 2020 according to historic rates listed at the Federal Reserve (see source link below).
• US data comes in an annualized format which the EU does not, thus EU data is annualized by multiplying the quarterly figure by four.
• US growth rates may differ from those provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as the BEA's growth rates are based on chained dollars in conjunction with the chain index or the quality index for real GDP.  The growth rates listed here are based on nominal GDP.
• All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.

Details

Italy had the worst performance over the previous quarter with an annualized drop of 24.04%.  Ireland had the best performance with an annualized gain of 2.32%.

Year over year, Italy had the worst performance with a 7.96% drop in GDP while Utah had the best performance with a 3.60% rise in GDP.

Spain saw the worst change in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth slowing its rate by 17.83 percentage points.  Sweden had the best change in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth ramping up its rate by 1.07 percentage points.

Sweden (from 67th best growth rate over the same quarter last year to the 20th best growth rate over the previous quarter) surpassed 47 states.  Conversely, Texas (from 26th to 46th) was bested by 20 states.  Three states had growth rates in the top five both over the same quarter last year and over the previous quarter: South Dakota (4th highest year-over-year, 2nd highest quarterly), Nebraska (2nd highest year-over-year, 3rd highest quarterly), and Utah (highest year-over-year, 5th highest quarterly).  Four states had growth rates in the bottom five both over the same quarter last year and over the previous quarter: Slovenia (74th highest year-over-year, 74th highest quarterly), France (77th highest year-over-year, 76th highest quarterly), Spain (75th highest year-over-year, 77th highest quarterly), and Italy (78th highest year-over-year, 78th highest quarterly).

Sources

Eurostat.  2020.  "GDP and Main Components."  Accessed July 15, 2020.  https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-406779_QID_-65D7EB62_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;UNIT,L,Z,0;S_ADJ,L,Z,1;NA_ITEM,L,Z,2;INDICATORS,C,Z,3;&zSelection=DS-406779UNIT,CP_MEUR;DS-406779INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-406779S_ADJ,SCA;DS-406779NA_ITEM,B1GQ;&rankName1=UNIT_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=NA-ITEM_1_2_-1_2&rankName4=S-ADJ_1_2_-1_2&rankName5=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName6=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.

Federal Reserve.  2020.  "Foreign Exchange Rates."  Accessed July 16, 2020.  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/.

US Bureau of Economic Analysis.  2020.  "GDP by State."  Accessed July 14, 2020.  https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state.