The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of May 2020, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Eight states have a negative interest rate (up from five last month and up from one last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the state with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 5.06 percentage points (down from 5.28 last month and same as 5.06 last year). Germany had the lowest rate last year and last month. Romania had the highest rate last year and last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.31 (same as 0.31 the previous month and down from 0.50 last year) and the mean 0.67 (down from 0.77 the previous month and down from 1.10 last year).
- Two states did not see a change in their long-term interest rate from the previous month, 22 saw their rate decrease, and three state saw their rate increase.
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from last year, 23 saw their rate decrease, and three states saw their rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from May 2020, April 2020, and May 2019.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Hungary saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.50 percentage points. On the flip side, Slovenia saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.47 percentage points. Year over year, Greece saw its rate drop the most with a 1.44 percentage point drop while Slovenia saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.36 percentage points.
The United Kingdom (from 14th lowest rate to 12th lowest rate) and Slovakia (from 17th to 15th) went up two spots each over the course of the month. Conversely, Slovenia (from 12th to 17th) dropped the most being bested by five states.
Over the course of the year, the United Kingdom (from 19th to 12th) rose the most besting seven states. On the flip side, Slovenia (from 10th to 17th) was bested by seven states.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was at 2.39% in May 2019, 0.66% in April 2020, and 0.67% in May 2020, meaning that Malta, Spain, Slovenia, Portugal, Croatia, Czechia, Poland, Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was at -0.06% in May 2019, 0.00% in April 2020, and 0.00% in May 2020 being bested by Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Austria, Sweden, and France.
Data
| State | May 2019 | April 2020 | May 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.24 | 0.05 | -0.1 |
| Belgium | 0.41 | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| Bulgaria | 0.48 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Croatia | 1.69 | 1.24 | 0.91 |
| Cyprus | 1.34 | 1.87 | 1.69 |
| Czechia | 1.86 | 1.28 | 0.92 |
| Denmark | 0.04 | -0.21 | -0.29 |
| Finland | 0.25 | 0.03 | -0.12 |
| France | 0.3 | 0.06 | -0.03 |
| Germany | -0.13 | -0.45 | -0.52 |
| Greece | 3.37 | 2.05 | 1.93 |
| Hungary | 3.19 | 2.49 | 1.99 |
| Ireland | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.11 |
| Italy | 2.64 | 1.8 | 1.76 |
| Latvia | 0.51 | 0.3 | 0.26 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Luxembourg | 0.02 | -0.25 | -0.32 |
| Malta | 0.95 | 0.57 | 0.7 |
| Netherlands | 0.11 | -0.22 | -0.31 |
| Poland | 2.72 | 1.46 | 1.35 |
| Portugal | 1.02 | 0.97 | 0.81 |
| Romania | 4.93 | 4.83 | 4.54 |
| Slovakia | 0.45 | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| Slovenia | 0.38 | 0.27 | 0.74 |
| Spain | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| Sweden | 0.07 | -0.07 | -0.06 |
| United Kingdom | 1.06 | 0.31 | 0.22 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2020. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed July 5, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_-6A383E86_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2020. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed July 5, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_-20CB521_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.