EU and US GDP Growth Rate by State, Fourth Quarter 2019

May 21, 2020
Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate in EU and US States

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate when the GDP is priced in US dollars in each EU and US state as of the fourth quarter of 2019 and the growth rate from one year prior.  One US state had negative growth over the past year whereas seven out of 28 EU states experienced negative growth in either the past quarter, past year, or both.

Findings

  • The difference between the state with the largest annualized quarterly growth rate, the United Kingdom, and the state with the smallest, Greece, is 23.08 percentage points.
  • The difference between the state with the largest year-over-year growth rate, Romania, and the state with the smallest, Sweden, is 9.15 percentage points.
  • The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 28 EU states is 3.44% and the mean 4.54%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 28 EU states is 1.40% and the mean 1.67%.
  • The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 50 US states is 3.40% and the mean 3.29%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 50 US states is 3.78% and the mean 3.56%.
  • The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 78 EU and US states is 3.40% and the mean 3.74%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 78 EU and US states is 3.29% and the mean 2.88%.
  • Forty-one states' economies grew faster over the previous quarter than they did over the same quarter last year (23 from the EU, 18 from the US).  Zero states saw the same growth over both time periods.  The remaining 37 states saw their economies grow slower over the previous quarter than they did over the same quarter last year (5 EU, 32 US).
  • All EU drops in GDP growth rate except for Greece's and Finland's quarterly growth and Sweden's annual growth are attributed to currency rate fluctuations.

Caveats

  • Data is from the fourth quarter of 2019, the third quarter of 2019, and the fourth quarter of 2018.
  • The data is seasonally and calendar adjusted in current dollars except for Slovakia which is only seasonally adjusted in current dollars.
  • Euros are converted to dollars at an average exchange rate of 1.11 for the fourth quarter of 2019, 1.11 for the third quarter of 2019, and 1.14 for the fourth quarter of 2018 according to historic rates listed at the Federal Reserve (see source link below).
  • US data comes in an annualized format which the EU does not, thus EU data is annualized by multiplying the quarterly figure by four.
  • US growth rates may differ from those provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as the BEA's growth rates are based on chained dollars in conjunction with the chain index or the quality index for real GDP.  The growth rates listed here are based on nominal GDP.
  • All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.

Details

Greece had the largest decline over the previous quarter with an annualized drop of 3.40%.  The United Kingdom had the largest growth with an annualized gain of 19.68%.

Year over year, Sweden had the largest decline with a 2.75% drop in GDP while Romania had the largest growth with a 6.40% rise in GDP.

Nwe Hampshire saw the largest decrease in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth slowing its rate by 2.52 percentage points.  The United Kingdom had the largest increase in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth ramping up its rate by 16.51 percentage points.

Belgium (from 69th largest growth rate over the same quarter last year to the 11th largest growth rate over the previous quarter) surpassed 58 states.  Conversely, New Hampshire (from 4th to 53rd) was bested by 49 states.  One state had growth rates in the top five both over the same quarter last year and over the previous quarter: Romania (highest year-over-year, 2nd highest quarterly).  Four states had growth rates in the bottom five both over the same quarter last year and over the previous quarter: Italy (76th highest year-over-year, 75th highest quarterly), Latvia (74th highest year-over-year, 75th highest quarterly), Finland (75th highest year-over-year, 77th highest quarterly), Greece (77th highest year-over-year, 78th highest quarterly), and the United Kingdom (75th highest year-over-year, 78th highest quarterly).

Sources

Eurostat.  2020.  "GDP and Main Components."  Accessed April 22, 2020.  https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-406779_QID_265259FB_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;UNIT,L,Z,0;S_ADJ,L,Z,1;NA_ITEM,L,Z,2;INDICATORS,C,Z,3;&zSelection=DS-406779UNIT,CP_MEUR;DS-406779INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-406779S_ADJ,SCA;DS-406779NA_ITEM,B1GQ;&rankName1=UNIT_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=NA-ITEM_1_2_-1_2&rankName4=S-ADJ_1_2_-1_2&rankName5=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName6=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.

Federal Reserve.  2020.  "Foreign Exchange Rates."  Accessed April 23, 2020.  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/.

US Bureau of Economic Analysis.  2020.  "GDP by State."  Accessed April 21, 2020.  https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state.