The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of March 2020, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Ten states have a negative interest rate (down from eleven last month and up from zero last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the states with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 5.10 percentage points (up from 4.51 last month and up from 4.79 last year). Germany had the lowest rate last year and last month. Romania had the highest rate last year and last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.15 (up from 0.12 the previous month and down from 0.68 last year) and the mean 0.60 (up from 0.45 the previous month and down from 1.24 last year).
- Two states did not see a change in their long-term interest rate from the previous month, seven saw their rate decrease, and 18 state saw their rate increase.
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from last year, 26 saw their rate decrease, and zero states saw their rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from March 2020, February 2020, and March 2019.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Poland saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.27 percentage points. On the flip side, Greece saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.90 percentage points. Year over year, Greece saw its rate drop the most with a 1.79 percentage point drop while Lithuania remained unchanged and was the only state whose rate did not fall.
Sweden (from 10th lowest rate to 5th lowest rate) went up five spots over the course of the month. Conversely, Ireland (from 8th to 13th) dropped the most being bested by five states.
Over the course of the year, Latvia (from 15th to 8th) rose the most besting seven states. On the flip side, Lithuania (from 6th to 15th) was bested by nine states.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was at 2.57% in March 2019, 1.51% in February 2020, and 0.88% in March 2020, meaning that only Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Italy, Poland, Greece, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was at -0.04% in March 2019, -0.06% in February 2020, and -0.03% in March 2020 being bested by Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Austria, France, and Latvia.
Data
| State | March 2019 | February 2020 | March 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.38 | -0.26 | -0.09 |
| Belgium | 0.54 | -0.13 | -0.02 |
| Bulgaria | 0.67 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Croatia | 2.07 | 0.57 | 0.96 |
| Cyprus | 1.74 | 0.56 | 1.26 |
| Czechia | 1.82 | 1.47 | 1.28 |
| Denmark | 0.16 | -0.41 | -0.41 |
| Finland | 0.35 | -0.25 | -0.12 |
| France | 0.44 | -0.18 | -0.06 |
| Germany | 0.01 | -0.47 | -0.54 |
| Greece | 3.76 | 1.07 | 1.97 |
| Hungary | 3.03 | 2.15 | 2.43 |
| Ireland | 0.67 | -0.13 | 0.07 |
| Italy | 2.69 | 0.96 | 1.55 |
| Latvia | 0.7 | -0.04 | -0.06 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Luxembourg | 0.17 | -0.43 | -0.36 |
| Malta | 1.03 | 0.26 | 0.4 |
| Netherlands | 0.15 | -0.34 | -0.33 |
| Poland | 2.75 | 2.07 | 1.8 |
| Portugal | 1.32 | 0.25 | 0.71 |
| Romania | 4.8 | 4.04 | 4.56 |
| Slovakia | 0.68 | 0 | 0.04 |
| Slovenia | 0.67 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Spain | 1.13 | 0.27 | 0.52 |
| Sweden | 0.29 | -0.05 | -0.17 |
| United Kingdom | 1.14 | 0.57 | 0.41 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2020. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed May 7, 2020. http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_604DC07D_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2020. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed May 7, 2020. http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_7CEC9A54_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.