The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of February 2020, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Eleven states have a negative interest rate (up from eight last month and up from zero last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the states with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 4.51 percentage points (down from 4.59 last month and down from 4.74 last year). Denmark had the lowest rate last year while Germany had the lowest rate last month. Romania had the highest rate last year and last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.12 (down from 0.15 the previous month and down from 0.86 last year) and the mean 0.45 (down from 0.58 the previous month and down from 1.31 last year).
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from the previous month, 25 saw their rate decrease, and one state saw its rate increase.
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from last year, 26 saw their rate decrease, and zero states saw their rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from February 2020, January 2020, and February 2019.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Italy saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.32 percentage points. On the flip side, Hungary saw its rate rise the most gaining 0.07 percentage points. Year over year, Greece saw its rate drop the most with a 2.77 percentage point drop while Lithuania remained unchanged and was the only state whose rate did not fall.
Luxembourg (from 3rd lowest rate to 2nd lowest rate), France (from 8th to 7th), Ireland (from 9th to 8th), Sweden (from 11th to 10th), Slovakia (from 13th to 12th), Portugal (from 16th to 15th), Malta (from 17th to 16th), Spain (from 18th to 17th), the United Kingdom (from 21st to 20th), and Poland (from 26th to 25th) went up one spot over the course of the month. Conversely, Slovenia (from 10th to 13th) and Lithuania (from 15th to 18th) dropped the most being bested by three states.
Over the course of the year, Ireland (from 14th to 8th) rose the most besting six states. On the flip side, Lithuania (from 5th to 18th) was bested by 13 states.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was at 2.67% in February 2019, 1.75% in January 2020, and 1.51% in February 2020, meaning that only Poland, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was at -0.02% in February 2019, -0.02% in January 2020, and -0.06% in February 2020 being bested by Germany, Luxembourg, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, France, Belgium, and Ireland.
Data
| State | February 2019 | January 2020 | February 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.45 | -0.09 | -0.26 |
| Belgium | 0.69 | -0.03 | -0.13 |
| Bulgaria | 0.68 | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| Croatia | 2.31 | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| Cyprus | 2 | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| Czechia | 1.76 | 1.62 | 1.47 |
| Denmark | 0.05 | -0.26 | -0.41 |
| Finland | 0.38 | -0.07 | -0.25 |
| France | 0.55 | -0.01 | -0.18 |
| Germany | 0.06 | -0.31 | -0.47 |
| Greece | 3.84 | 1.34 | 1.07 |
| Hungary | 2.68 | 2.08 | 2.15 |
| Ireland | 0.86 | 0 | -0.13 |
| Italy | 2.81 | 1.28 | 0.96 |
| Latvia | 0.81 | 0.11 | -0.04 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Luxembourg | 0.26 | -0.25 | -0.43 |
| Malta | 1.17 | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| Netherlands | 0.24 | -0.17 | -0.34 |
| Poland | 2.69 | 2.23 | 2.07 |
| Portugal | 1.55 | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| Romania | 4.79 | 4.28 | 4.04 |
| Slovakia | 0.78 | 0.13 | 0 |
| Slovenia | 0.87 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| Spain | 1.31 | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| Sweden | 0.36 | 0.11 | -0.05 |
| United Kingdom | 1.2 | 0.67 | 0.57 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2020. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed April 7, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_-30CBCCD5_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2020. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed April 7, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_26A80175_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.