The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of January 2020, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Eight states have a negative interest rate (up from six last month and up from zero last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the states with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 4.59 percentage points (down from 4.87 last month and up from 4.56 last year). Germany had the lowest rate last year and Romania had the highest rate last year. Germany and Romania had the lowest and highest rates respectively last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.15 (down from 0.18 the previous month and down from 0.95 last year) and the mean 0.58 (down from 0.59 the previous month and down from 1.40 last year).
- Three states did not see a change in their long-term interest rate from the previous month, 17 saw their rate decrease, and seven states saw their rate increase.
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from last year, 26 saw their rate decrease, and zero states saw their rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from January 2020, December 2019, and January 2019.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Romania saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.29 percentage points. On the flip side, Hungary and Poland's rate rose the most gaining 0.20 percentage points. Year over year, Greece saw its rate drop the most with a 2.87 percentage point drop while Lithuania remained unchanged and was the only state whose rate did not fall.
Latvia (from 13th lowest rate to 11th lowest rate) went up two spots over the course of the month. Conversely, Slovenia (from 8th to 10th) dropped the most being bested by two states.
Over the course of the year, Slovenia (from 15th to 10th) rose the most besting five states. On the flip side, Lithuania (from 3rd to 15th) was bested by 12 states.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was at 2.71% in January 2019, 1.86% in December 2019, and 1.75% in January 2020, meaning that only Hungary, Poland, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was at 0.01% in January 2019, -0.01% in December 2019, and -0.02% in January 2020 being bested by Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, and Belgium.
Data
| State | January 2019 | December 2019 | January 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.45 | -0.04 | -0.09 |
| Belgium | 0.77 | 0.01 | -0.03 |
| Bulgaria | 0.72 | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| Croatia | 2.23 | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| Cyprus | 2.22 | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| Czechia | 1.85 | 1.51 | 1.62 |
| Denmark | 0.15 | -0.26 | -0.26 |
| Finland | 0.49 | -0.04 | -0.07 |
| France | 0.65 | 0.04 | -0.01 |
| Germany | 0.13 | -0.3 | -0.31 |
| Greece | 4.21 | 1.42 | 1.34 |
| Hungary | 2.85 | 1.88 | 2.08 |
| Ireland | 0.94 | 0.04 | 0 |
| Italy | 2.77 | 1.37 | 1.28 |
| Latvia | 0.95 | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Luxembourg | 0.37 | -0.23 | -0.25 |
| Malta | 1.25 | 0.4 | 0.38 |
| Netherlands | 0.33 | -0.14 | -0.17 |
| Poland | 2.78 | 2.03 | 2.23 |
| Portugal | 1.67 | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| Romania | 4.69 | 4.57 | 4.28 |
| Slovakia | 0.88 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Slovenia | 0.98 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Spain | 1.38 | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| Sweden | 0.43 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| United Kingdom | 1.28 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2020. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed March 5, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_76BABB8A_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2020. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed March 5, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_5DD126C0_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.