The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of December 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Six states have a negative interest rate (down from nine last month and up from zero last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the states with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 4.87 percentage points (up from 4.67 last month and up from 4.41 last year). Germany had the lowest rate last year and Romania had the highest rate last year. Germany and Romania had the lowest and highest rates respectively last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.18 (down from 0.22 the previous month and down from 0.96 last year) and the mean 0.59 (up from 0.55 the previous month and down from 1.45 last year).
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from the previous month, five saw their rate decrease, and 21 states saw their rate increase.
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from last year, 26 saw their rate decrease, and zero states saw their rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from December 2019, November 2019, and December 2018.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Hungary saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.07 percentage points. On the flip side, Romania's rate rose the most gaining 0.25 percentage points. Year over year, Greece saw its rate drop the most with a 2.86 percentage point drop while Lithuania remained unchanged and was the only state whose rate did not fall.
Ireland (from 11th lowest rate to 9th lowest rate) went up two spots over the course of the month. Conversely, France (from 8th to 9th), Sweden (from 10th to 11th), Portugal (from 16th to 17th), and Croatia (from 19th to 20th) dropped the most being bested by one state each.
Over the course of the year, Slovenia (from 14th to 8th) rose the most besting six states. On the flip side, Lithuania (from 3rd to 15th) was bested by 12 states.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was at 2.83% in December 2018, 1.81% in November 2019, and 1.86% in December 2019, meaning that only Hungary, Poland, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was at 0.04% in December 2018, -0.09% in November 2019, and -0.01% in December 2019 being bested by Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, and Finland.
Data
| State | December 2018 | November 2019 | December 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.52 | -0.09 | -0.04 |
| Belgium | 0.75 | -0.04 | 0.01 |
| Bulgaria | 0.72 | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| Croatia | 2.04 | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| Cyprus | 2.34 | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| Czechia | 2.01 | 1.47 | 1.51 |
| Denmark | 0.23 | -0.31 | -0.26 |
| Finland | 0.55 | -0.08 | -0.04 |
| France | 0.7 | -0.02 | 0.04 |
| Germany | 0.19 | -0.35 | -0.3 |
| Greece | 4.28 | 1.36 | 1.42 |
| Hungary | 3.15 | 1.95 | 1.88 |
| Ireland | 0.91 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Italy | 2.98 | 1.27 | 1.37 |
| Latvia | 1.05 | 0.1 | 0.16 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Luxembourg | 0.42 | -0.27 | -0.23 |
| Malta | 1.39 | 0.37 | 0.4 |
| Netherlands | 0.4 | -0.19 | -0.14 |
| Poland | 2.94 | 2.05 | 2.03 |
| Portugal | 1.71 | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| Romania | 4.6 | 4.32 | 4.57 |
| Slovakia | 0.94 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Slovenia | 0.96 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| Spain | 1.42 | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| Sweden | 0.47 | 0 | 0.07 |
| United Kingdom | 1.27 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2020. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed February 6, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_4220BBB2_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2020. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed February 6, 2020. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_3221330F_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.