The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of November 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Nine states have a negative interest rate (down from 11 last month and up from zero last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the states with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 4.64 percentage points (up from 4.59 last month and up from 4.47 last year). Lithuania and Germany had the lowest rate last year and Romania had the highest rate last year while Germany and Romania had the lowest and highest rates respectively last month.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.22 (up from 0.19 the previous month and down from 1.01 last year) and the mean 0.55 (up from 0.43 the previous month and down from 1.57 last year).
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from the previous month, one saw its rate decrease, and 25 states saw their rate increase.
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from last year, 26 saw their rate decrease, and zero states saw their rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from November 2019, October 2019, and November 2018.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Bulgaria saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.03 percentage points. On the flip side, Slovakia's rate rose the most gaining 0.29 percentage points. Year over year, Greece saw its rate drop the most with a 3.06 percentage point drop while Lithuania remained unchanged and was the only state whose rate did not fall.
Lithuania (from 18th lowest rate to 15th lowest rate) went up three spots over the course of the month. Conversely, Slovakia (from 6th to 12th) dropped the most being bested by six states.
Over the course of the year, Belgium (from 11th lowest rate to 7th lowest rate) and Slovenia (from 13th to 9th) rose the most besting four states. On the flip side, Lithuania (from 1st to 15th) was bested by 14 states.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was at 3.12% in November 2018, 1.70% in October 2019, and 1.81% in November 2019, meaning that only Hungary, Poland, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was at 0.11% in November 2018, -0.16% in October 2019, and -0.09% in November 2019 being bested by Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.
Data
| State | November 2018 | October 2019 | November 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.62 | -0.2 | -0.09 |
| Belgium | 0.81 | -0.16 | -0.04 |
| Bulgaria | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| Croatia | 2.07 | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| Cyprus | 2.41 | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| Czechia | 2.07 | 1.32 | 1.47 |
| Denmark | 0.34 | -0.43 | -0.31 |
| Finland | 0.66 | -0.21 | -0.08 |
| France | 0.76 | -0.16 | -0.02 |
| Germany | 0.31 | -0.47 | -0.35 |
| Greece | 4.42 | 1.34 | 1.36 |
| Hungary | 3.47 | 1.94 | 1.95 |
| Ireland | 0.98 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Italy | 3.39 | 1 | 1.27 |
| Latvia | 1.05 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Luxembourg | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.27 |
| Malta | 1.54 | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| Netherlands | 0.52 | -0.31 | -0.19 |
| Poland | 3.19 | 1.96 | 2.05 |
| Portugal | 1.91 | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| Romania | 4.78 | 4.12 | 4.29 |
| Slovakia | 1.01 | -0.2 | 0.09 |
| Slovenia | 1.01 | -0.09 | -0.01 |
| Spain | 1.59 | 0.2 | 0.39 |
| Sweden | 0.6 | -0.16 | 0 |
| United Kingdom | 1.44 | 0.61 | 0.73 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2019. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed January 9, 2019. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_3C4B9302_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2019. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed January 9, 2019. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_-37B2CAB4_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.