The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of October 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Eleven states have a negative interest rate (down from 13 last month and up from zero last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the states with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 4.59 percentage points (down from 4.71 last month and same as 4.59 last year). Denmark and Germany had the lowest rate last month and Romania had the highest rate last month while Lithuania and Romania had the lowest and highest rates respectively last year.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.19 (up from 0.18 the previous month and down from 1.01 last year) and the mean 0.43 (up from 0.39 the previous month and down from 1.62 last year).
- Two states did not see a change in their long-term interest rate from the previous month, six saw their rate decrease, and 19 states saw their rate increase.
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from last year, 26 saw their rate decrease, and zero states saw their rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from October 2019, September 2019, and October 2018.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Greece saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.16 percentage points. On the flip side, Denmark's rate rose the most gaining 0.16 percentage points. Year over year, Greece saw its rate drop the most with a 3.03 percentage point drop while Lithuania remained unchanged and was the only state whose rate did not fall.
Sweden (from 10th lowest rate to 8th lowest rate), Portugal (from 16th to 14th), and Bulgaria (from 18th to 16th) went up two spots over the course of the month. Finland (from 6th to 5th), Belgium (from 9th to 8th), and Croatia (from 20th to 19th) each rose one spot over the month. Conversely, Malta (from 15th to 17th) dropped the most. Denmark (from 1st to 2nd), Slovakia (from 5th to 6th), Spain (from 14th to 15th), Lithuania (from 17th to 18th), Cyprus (from 19th to 20th), and Poland (from 25th to 26th) were each bested by one state.
Over the course of the year, Slovakia (from 15th lowest rate to 6th lowest rate) rose the most besting nine states. Portugal (from 19th to 14th) bested five. Finland (from 8th to 5th), Belgium (from 11th to 8th), and Spain (from 18th to 15th) each bested three. France (from 10th to 8th), Cyprus (from 22nd to 20th), Italy (from 24th to 22nd), and Greece (from 26th to 24th) each bested two. Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Slovenia, Latvia, and Croatia each bested one. On the flip side, Lithuania (from 1st to 18th) was bested by 17 states. Bulgaria (from 9th to 16th) was bested by seven. The United Kingdom (from 16th to 21st) was bested by five. Poland (from 23rd to 26th) was bested by three. Sweden (from 6th to 8th) and Czechia (from 21st to 23rd) by two, and Malta was bested by one.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was at 3.15% in October 2018, 1.70% in September 2019, and 1.70% in October 2019, meaning that only Hungary, Poland, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was at 0.14% in October 2018, -0.23% in September 2019, and -0.16% in October 2019 being bested by Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Finland, Austria, Slovakia, Belgium, France, and Sweden.
Data
| State | October 2018 | September 2019 | October 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.69 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Belgium | 0.85 | -0.24 | -0.16 |
| Bulgaria | 0.74 | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| Croatia | 2.09 | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| Cyprus | 2.35 | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| Czechia | 2.14 | 1.24 | 1.32 |
| Denmark | 0.42 | -0.59 | -0.43 |
| Finland | 0.73 | -0.3 | -0.21 |
| France | 0.82 | -0.28 | -0.16 |
| Germany | 0.4 | -0.59 | -0.47 |
| Greece | 4.37 | 1.5 | 1.34 |
| Hungary | 3.74 | 2.02 | 1.94 |
| Ireland | 1.01 | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| Italy | 3.47 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Latvia | 1.01 | -0.11 | 0 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Luxembourg | 0.56 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Malta | 1.56 | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| Netherlands | 0.58 | -0.43 | -0.31 |
| Poland | 3.22 | 2.02 | 1.96 |
| Portugal | 1.96 | 0.2 | 0.19 |
| Romania | 4.9 | 4.12 | 4.12 |
| Slovakia | 1.07 | -0.34 | -0.2 |
| Slovenia | 0.92 | -0.16 | -0.09 |
| Spain | 1.6 | 0.18 | 0.2 |
| Sweden | 0.67 | -0.23 | -0.16 |
| United Kingdom | 1.56 | 0.58 | 0.62 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2019. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Daily Data." Accessed December 11, 2019. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-075735_QID_-52304968_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-075735INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-075735INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2019. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed December 11, 2019. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_1E32B87E_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2019. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed December 11, 2019. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_-65E9A912_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.