The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of August 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Thirteen states have a negative interest rate (up from nine last month and zero last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the state with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 4.77 percentage points (down from 4.90 last month and up from 4.51 last year). Germany and Romania were the states with the lowest and highest rates respectively last month and last year.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.14 (down from 0.31 the previous month and down from 0.92 last year) and the mean 0.40 (down from 0.64 the previous month and down from 1.50 last year).
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from the previous month, 26 saw their rate decrease, and zero states saw their rate increase.
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from last year, 26 saw their rate decrease, and zero states saw their rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from August 2019, July 2019, and August 2018.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Hungary saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.50 percentage points. On the flip side, Lithuania's rate remained unchanged. Year over year, Greece saw its rate drop the most with a 2.20 percentage point drop while Lithuania once again remained unchanged and was the only state whose rate did not fall.
Slovakia (from 11th lowest rate to 8th lowest rate) went up three spots over the course of the month. Latvia (from 13th to 11th), Portugal (from 17th to 15th), Malta (from 18th to 16th), and Hungary (from 26th to 24th) each rose two spots. Austria (from 6th to 5th) and Spain (from 15th to 14th) each rose one spot over the month. Conversely, Slovenia (from 9th to 12th) and Lithuania (from 14th to 17th) dropped the most. Bulgaria (from 16th to 18th) was bested by two states. Sweden (from 5th to 6th), Ireland (from 12th to 13th), Poland (from 24th to 25th), and Greece (from 25th to 26th) were each bested by one state.
Over the course of the year, Slovakia (from 14th lowest rate to 8th lowest rate) rose the most besting six states. Latvia (from 15th to 11th) and Portugal (from 19th to 15th) each bested four. Austria (from 8th to 5th), Spain (from 17th to 14th), and Cyprus (from 22nd to 19th) each bested three. Malta (from 18th to 16th) bested two states. Denmark, Luxembourg, France, Italy, and Hungary each bested one. On the flip side, Lithuania (from 2nd to 17th) was bested by 15 states. Bulgaria (from 12th to 18th) was bested by six. The United Kingdom (from 16th to 20th) was bested by four. Czechia (from 20th to 22nd) and Poland (from 23rd to 25th) by two, and Slovenia was bested by one.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was at 2.89% in August 2018, 2.06% in July 2019, and 1.63% in August 2019, meaning that only Hungary, Poland, Greece, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was at 0.10% in August 2018, -0.14% in July 2019, and -0.23% in August 2019 being bested by Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Finland, France, Slovakia, and Belgium.
Data
| State | August 2018 | July 2019 | August 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.37 |
| Belgium | 0.71 | 0 | -0.28 |
| Bulgaria | 0.81 | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| Croatia | 2.18 | 1.06 | 0.83 |
| Cyprus | 2.22 | 0.66 | 0.44 |
| Czechia | 2.14 | 1.36 | 0.99 |
| Denmark | 0.33 | -0.31 | -0.58 |
| Finland | 0.56 | -0.09 | -0.35 |
| France | 0.7 | -0.07 | -0.34 |
| Germany | 0.29 | -0.39 | -0.65 |
| Greece | 4.18 | 2.16 | 1.98 |
| Hungary | 3.41 | 2.33 | 1.83 |
| Ireland | 0.86 | 0.13 | -0.05 |
| Italy | 3.16 | 1.65 | 1.4 |
| Latvia | 0.95 | 0.15 | -0.07 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Luxembourg | 0.47 | -0.28 | -0.54 |
| Malta | 1.46 | 0.52 | 0.21 |
| Netherlands | 0.47 | -0.21 | -0.5 |
| Poland | 3.14 | 2.13 | 1.93 |
| Portugal | 1.82 | 0.44 | 0.17 |
| Romania | 4.8 | 4.51 | 4.12 |
| Slovakia | 0.92 | 0.02 | -0.34 |
| Slovenia | 0.77 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| Spain | 1.4 | 0.36 | 0.14 |
| Sweden | 0.52 | -0.12 | -0.36 |
| United Kingdom | 1.31 | 0.73 | 0.49 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2019. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed October 3, 2019. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_49EACD97_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2019. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed October 3, 2019. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_1BDD2FD2_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.