The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of July 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Nine states have a negative interest rate (up from five last month and zero last year).
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the state with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 4.90 percentage points (same as 4.90 last month and up from 4.77 last year). Germany and Romania were the states with the lowest and highest rates respectively last month and last year.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.31 (down from 0.32 the previous month and down from 0.94 last year) and the mean 0.64 (down from 0.82 the previous month and down from 1.47 last year).
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from the previous month, 25 saw their rate decrease, and one state saw its rate increase.
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from last year, 26 saw their rate decrease, and zero states saw their rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from July 2019, June 2019, and July 2018.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Italy saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.63 percentage points. Bulgaria had the biggest spike in its rate rising 0.11 percentage points. Year over year, Greece saw its rate drop the most with a 1.72 percentage point drop while Lithuania once again remained unchanged and was the only state whose rate did not fall.
Latvia (from 15th lowest rate to 13th lowest rate) went up two spots over the course of the month. Slovenia (from 10th to 9th) and Spain (from 16th to 15th) each rose one spot over the month. Conversely, Bulgaria (from 14th to 16th) dropped the most. Sweden (from 4th to 5th), Belgium (from 9th to 10th), and Lithuania (from 13th to 14th) were each bested by one state.
Over the course of the year, Slovakia (from 14th lowest rate to 11th lowest rate) rose the most besting three states. Austria (from 8th to 6th), Slovenia (from 11th to 9th), Latvia (from 15th to 13th), Spain (from 17th to 15th), and Portugal (from 19th to 17th) each bested two states. Denmark, Luxembourg, Sweden, France, Cyprus, Croatia, and Greece each bested one. On the flip side, Lithuania (from 2nd to 14th) was bested by 12 states. The United Kingdom (from 16th to 20th) was bested by four, Bulgaria (13th to 16th) by three, and Czechia and Hungary were each bested by one.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was at 2.89% in July 2018, 2.07% in June 2019, and 2.06% in July 2019, meaning that only Poland, Greece, Hungary, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was at 0.05% in July 2018, -0.13% in June 2019, and -0.14% in July 2019 being bested only by Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.
Data
| State | July 2018 | June 2019 | July 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.6 | 0.03 | -0.1 |
| Belgium | 0.68 | 0.15 | 0 |
| Bulgaria | 0.92 | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| Croatia | 2.26 | 1.36 | 1.06 |
| Cyprus | 2.08 | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| Czechia | 2.11 | 1.58 | 1.36 |
| Denmark | 0.32 | -0.22 | -0.31 |
| Finland | 0.53 | 0.05 | -0.09 |
| France | 0.67 | 0.08 | -0.07 |
| Germany | 0.28 | -0.31 | -0.39 |
| Greece | 3.88 | 2.67 | 2.16 |
| Hungary | 3.39 | 2.74 | 2.33 |
| Ireland | 0.83 | 0.27 | 0.13 |
| Italy | 2.64 | 2.28 | 1.65 |
| Latvia | 1.06 | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Luxembourg | 0.47 | -0.16 | -0.28 |
| Malta | 1.34 | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| Netherlands | 0.47 | -0.09 | -0.21 |
| Poland | 3.17 | 2.35 | 2.13 |
| Portugal | 1.76 | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| Romania | 5.05 | 4.59 | 4.51 |
| Slovakia | 0.94 | 0.25 | 0.02 |
| Slovenia | 0.79 | 0.19 | -0.01 |
| Spain | 1.33 | 0.5 | 0.36 |
| Sweden | 0.51 | -0.09 | -0.12 |
| United Kingdom | 1.27 | 0.84 | 0.73 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2019. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed September 5, 2019. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_25ECFF1_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2019. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed September 5, 2019. https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_C31D48E_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.