The chart above shows the ten-year interest rate in each EU state as of May 2019, the change from the previous month, and the rate one year prior. Germany continues to be the only state with a negative interest rate.
Findings
- The difference (spread) between the state with the lowest long-term interest rate, Germany, and the state with the highest, Romania, is 5.06 percentage points (up from 4.95 last month and up from 4.38 last year). Germany and Romania were the states with the lowest and highest rates respectively last month while Lithuania and Romania had the lowest and highest rates respectively last year.
- The median long-term interest rate in the 28 EU states is 0.50 (down from 0.57 the previous month and down from 0.98 last year) and the mean 1.10 (down from 1.17 the previous month and down from 1.51 last year).
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from the previous month, 22 saw their rate decrease, and four states saw their rate increase.
- One state did not see a change in its long-term interest rate from last year, 23 saw their rate decrease, and three states saw their rate increase.
Caveats
- Data is from May 2019, April 2019, and May 2018.
- Estonia does not currently issue any sovereign debt that complies with the definition of long-term interest rates for convergence purposes and no suitable proxy indicator has been identified, therefore there is no data available for Estonia.
- All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
Details
Spain saw its rate drop the most over the previous month dropping 0.17 percentage points. Hungary had the biggest spike in its rate rising 0.05 percentage points. Year over year, Cyprus saw its rate drop the most with a 1.18 percentage point drop while Italy had the biggest spike with a 0.46 percentage point rise in the long-term interest rate.
Slovenia and Slovakia went up two spots each over the course of the month as Slovenia had the 12th lowest rate in April and the 10th lowest rate in May while Slovakia went from the 14th lowest rate in April to the 12th lowest rate in May. Luxembourg, Sweden, Finland, France, Spain, and Portugal each rose one spot over the month. Conversely, Lithuania dropped the most even though its rate stayed steady by being bested by three states over the course of the month. Bulgaria was bested by two and went from 11th lowest rate to 13th, while Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Malta, the United Kingdom, and Czechia were each bested by one state.
Over the course of the year, Austria (from 9th lowest rates to 6th lowest rates), Slovenia (from 13th to 10th), and Cyprus (from 23rd to 20th) each rose the most besting three states each. Luxembourg (from 4th to 2nd), France (from 10th to 8th), and Bulgaria (from 15th to 13th) each bested two states, while Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, and Poland each bested one. On the flip side, Lithuania was bested by eight states going from having the lowest rate to the 9th lowest rate even though its rate has remained steady over the year. Slovakia (from 8th to 12th) was bested by four, Latvia (12th to 15th) by three, Czechia (from 20th to 22nd) by two, and Malta, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Hungary were each bested by one.
For reference, the United States' ten-year note was at 2.98% in May 2018, 2.53% in April 2019, and 2.39% in May 2019, meaning that only Italy, Poland, Hungary, Greece, and Romania have higher rates than the US. Japan's ten-year rate was at 0.05% in May 2018, -0.04% in April 2019, and -0.06% in May 2019 being bested only by Germany.
Data
| State | May 2018 | April 2019 | May 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 0.76 | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| Belgium | 0.83 | 0.47 | 0.41 |
| Bulgaria | 1.05 | 0.5 | 0.48 |
| Croatia | 2.16 | 1.82 | 1.69 |
| Cyprus | 2.52 | 1.49 | 1.34 |
| Czechia | 1.89 | 1.82 | 1.86 |
| Denmark | 0.52 | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| Finland | 0.7 | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| France | 0.78 | 0.37 | 0.3 |
| Germany | 0.45 | -0.04 | -0.13 |
| Greece | 4.29 | 3.42 | 3.37 |
| Hungary | 2.92 | 3.14 | 3.19 |
| Ireland | 0.98 | 0.56 | 0.5 |
| Italy | 2.18 | 2.62 | 2.64 |
| Latvia | 0.86 | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| Lithuania | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Luxembourg | 0.61 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| Malta | 1.32 | 1 | 0.95 |
| Netherlands | 0.67 | 0.2 | 0.11 |
| Poland | 3.23 | 2.76 | 2.72 |
| Portugal | 1.84 | 1.18 | 1.02 |
| Romania | 4.69 | 4.91 | 4.93 |
| Slovakia | 0.75 | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| Slovenia | 0.96 | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| Spain | 1.39 | 1.04 | 0.87 |
| Sweden | 0.66 | 0.23 | 0.07 |
| United Kingdom | 1.42 | 1.15 | 1.06 |
Sources
Eurostat. 2019. "EMU Convergence Criterion Series - Monthly Data." Accessed May 5, 2019. http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-055774_QID_-2727F77C_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;INT_RT,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-055774INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-055774INT_RT,MCBY;&rankName1=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INT-RT_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.
Eurostat. 2019. "Government Bond Yields, Ten Years' Maturity - Monthly Data." Accessed May 5, 2019. http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-054880_QID_-1246916C_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;MATURITY,L,Z,0;INDICATORS,C,Z,1;&zSelection=DS-054880INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-054880MATURITY,Y10;&rankName1=MATURITY_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName4=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.