EU and US GDP Growth Rate by Region, Fourth Quarter 2018

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate in each EU and US region as of the fourth quarter of 2018 and the growth rate from one year prior.  All negative growth rates in the EU are attributed to currency rate fluctuations.

Findings

• The difference between the region with the largest annualized quarterly growth rate, the Southern US, and the region with the smallest, the Southern EU, is 9.4 percentage points.
• The difference between the region with the largest year-over-year growth rate, the Southern US, and the region with the smallest, the Northern EU, is 7.67 percentage points.
• The Northern EU is the only region whose growth rate was larger over the previous quarter than it was over the same quarter last year.
• All EU drops in growth rate are attributed to currency rate fluctuations.

Caveats

• Data is from the fourth quarter of 2018.
• The data is seasonally adjusted in current dollars.
• Euros are converted to dollars at an average exchange rate of 1.14 for the fourth quarter of 2018, 1.16 for the third quarter of 2018, and 1.18 for the fourth quarter of 2017 according to historic rates listed at the Federal Reserve (see source link below).
• US data comes in an annualized format which the EU does not, thus EU data is annualized by multiplying the quarterly figure by four.
• US growth rates may differ from those provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as the BEA's growth rates are based on chained dollars in conjunction with the chain index or the quality index for real GDP.  The growth rates listed here are based on nominal GDP.
• All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.
• The Southern US consists of Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Louisiana, South Carolina, Alabama, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, and West Virginia.
• The Western US consists of California, Washington, Colorado, Arizona, Oregon, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, Hawaii, Idaho, Alaska, Montana, and Wyoming.
• The Midwestern US consists of Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.
• The Northeastern US consists of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Delaware, Maine, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
• The Northern EU consists of Sweden, Denmark, and Finland.
• The Eastern EU consists of Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
• The Western EU consists of Germany, United Kingdom, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Ireland, and Luxembourg.
• The Southern EU consists of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, and Malta.

Details

The Southern EU had the largest decrease over the previous quarter with an annualized drop of 4.88%.  The Southern US had the largest growth with an annualized gain of 4.52%.

Year over year, the Northern EU had the largest decrease with a 1.83% drop in GDP while the Southern US had the largest growth with a 5.84% rise in GDP.

The Eastern EU saw the largest decrease in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth slowing its rate by 4.15 percentage points.  The Northern EU had the largest increase in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth raising its rate by 2.03 percentage points.

No region overcame another region in the quarter.  The Northern EU however, went from having the slowest growth rate over the same quarter last year to the fifth fastest growth rate over the previous quarter surpassing the other three EU regions.  The Northeastern US had the smallest range in annualized quarterly growth rates with a low of 2.20% in New York to a high of 4.74% in New Jersey.  Conversely, the Western US had the greatest range in annualized quarterly growth rates with a low of 0.40% in Wyoming to a high of 5.56% in Idaho.  Year-over-year, the Midwestern US had the smallest range in growth rates with a low of 3.96% in Nebraska to a high of 6.52% in North Dakota.  The Southern US on the other hand, had the greatest range of rates on a year-over-year basis with a low of 3.59% in Kentucky to a high of 7.26% in Texas.

Sources

Eurostat.  2019.  "GDP and Main Components."  Accessed May 22, 2019.  http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-406779_QID_60EF9FCD_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;UNIT,L,Z,0;S_ADJ,L,Z,1;NA_ITEM,L,Z,2;INDICATORS,C,Z,3;&zSelection=DS-406779INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-406779UNIT,CP_MEUR;DS-406779S_ADJ,SCA;DS-406779NA_ITEM,B1GQ;&rankName1=UNIT_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=NA-ITEM_1_2_-1_2&rankName4=S-ADJ_1_2_-1_2&rankName5=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName6=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.

Federal Reserve.  2019.  "Foreign Exchange Rates."  Accessed May 26, 2019.  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/.

US Bureau of Economic Analysis.  2019.  "GDP by State."  Accessed May 22, 2019.  https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state.