The 2018 New York Gubernatorial Results Based on County Population

Nov 13, 2018
New York Gubernatorial Results by County

The geographically accurate cartogram above shows the 2018 gubernatorial results in New York based on county populations.  The larger the county on this map, the larger its population.  The map shows that even though Andrew Cuomo only won 15 of the 62 counties in the state, those 15 counties make up such a large chunk of the state's population that he could afford to lose 47 counties.

Findings

  • Cuomo won all five counties of New York City.
  • He also won nine of the 12 counties of the New York City metropolitan area (which accounts for nearly three-fourths of the state's population).
  • Molinaro won 47 out of 62 counties but as the cartogram shows, all those counties have relatively small populations.
  • Cuomo also won counties by larger margins of victory.

Caveats

  • There may still be a few votes not counted.
  • The map is presented in an Albers equal-area conic projection.
  • The choropleth classification is based on Jenks or natural breaks.

Summary

This map shows that anybody running for office in New York state can completely ignore the vast expanse outside of the New York City metropolitan area and still win by a sizable margin.  Although this makes sense democratically, the needs of the mostly rural counties upstate are completely different to those of the major urban centers like New York City and Buffalo (which Cuomo also won - it is in Erie County).  On the federal level, this issue is alleviated with the electoral college, making sure that people living in large swaths of the country are not ignored, but that brings up the issue that those people's votes count more than the people in populous states.  Neither method is perfect and its doubtful that there is a graceful solution to this problem.

An electoral college in the state would not work as each county in the state is not guaranteed one representative in either chamber.  So for now, the interests of the rural counties - which take up well over half the landmass of the state - will be ignored.  However, if counties were alloted one seat in the upper house each and at least one in the lower house with the lower house allotment based on population, then there would be 213 electors which would require winning 107 to win statewide office.  In that scenario, Cuomo would still win by winning 117 electors to Molinaro's 96.  Still a victory for Cuomo but a much tighter one.

Data

CountyCuomo (%)Molinaro (%)Total Votes
Albany50.4339.84108,896
Allegany21.9766.6814,433
Bronx89.567.94260,039
Broome41.5549.9669,205
Cattaraugus27.9861.8023,342
Cayuga34.1952.7826,410
Chautauqua34.1758.7441,728
Chemung32.7157.5928,138
Chenango28.7360.8115,936
Clinton41.8049.2324,830
Columbia42.4450.9626,173
Cortland37.4447.6215,779
Delaware31.4458.8815,806
Dutchess44.1152.55107,264
Erie50.0444.14324,589
Essex42.7546.6613,427
Franklin37.0449.4513,276
Fulton22.6369.1016,296
Genesee24.4065.6220,417
Greene29.0461.7918,060
Hamilton23.6764.022,493
Herkimer25.6664.4820,989
Jefferson28.3863.0428,408
Kings81.3113.28600,224
Lewis19.0871.268,627
Livingston32.4857.3824,573
Madison33.4156.0924,633
Monroe49.3741.76272,949
Montgomery27.0765.0014,841
Nassau55.0840.59477,530
New York85.429.78485,790
Niagara37.6856.5569,708
Oneida33.7556.1876,330
Onondaga46.9841.96168,305
Ontario36.1053.8742,290
Orange44.9948.71119,242
Orleans23.1368.2212,505
Oswego29.2558.5637,454
Otsego35.6653.0220,452
Putnam41.1053.4437,122
Queens77.5818.14472,253
Rensselaer37.4752.5358,664
Richmond48.9648.08133,408
Rockland52.0942.7997,792
Saratoga37.6354.4891,479
Schenectady42.1449.6952,823
Schoharie23.8966.6411,598
Schuyler31.2754.007,035
Seneca34.1353.7411,203
St. Lawrence32.4655.9431,488
Steuben25.9860.8932,725
Suffolk50.1446.21507,055
Sullivan40.4552.5022,931
Tioga31.2859.3117,528
Tompkins63.5824.0734,705
Ulster50.9243.3672,743
Warren36.5556.2923,226
Washington30.0463.0319,358
Wayne28.1661.1930,396
Westchester65.5530.59314,005
Wyoming19.3073.8613,535
Yates29.5461.407,546

Sources

New York State Board of Elections.  "NYS Board of Elections Unofficial Election Night Results."  Accessed November 12, 2018.  https://nyenr.elections.ny.gov/.

United States Census Bureau.  "Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016."  Accessed December 12, 2017.  http://factfinder2.census.gov.

Filed under: Elections