EU and US GDP Growth Rate by State, First Quarter 2020

The chart above shows the annualized nominal gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate when the GDP is priced in US dollars in each EU and US state as of the first quarter of 2020 and the growth rate from one year prior.  Portugal and Slovakia were the only states to contract over the previous quarter.

Findings

• The difference between the state with the largest annualized quarterly growth rate, Ireland, and the state with the smallest, Slovakia, is 13.10 percentage points.
• The difference between the state with the largest year-over-year growth rate, Ireland, and the state with the smallest, Hawaii, is 22.70 percentage points.
• The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 28 EU states is 3.96% and the mean 3.69%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 28 EU states is 10.05% and the mean 10.98%.
• The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 50 US states is 2.75% and the mean 2.97%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 50 US states is 2.95% and the mean 2.79%.
• The median annualized quarterly growth rate in the 78 EU and US states is 2.82% and the mean 3.23%.  The median year-over-year growth rate in the 78 EU and US states is 3.93% and the mean 5.73%.
• Of the 28 states, 24 (0 from the EU, 24 from the US) grew faster over the previous quarter than they did over the same quarter last year, 0 (0 EU, 0 US) saw the same growth over both time periods, and 54 (28 EU, 26 US) grew slower over the previous quarter than they did over the same quarter last year.
• Some EU gains in GDP growth rate are attributed to currency rate fluctuations.

Caveats

• Data is from the first quarter of 2019, the fourth quarter of 2020, and the first quarter of 2020.
• The data is seasonally and calendar adjusted in current dollars except for Slovakia which is only seasonally adjusted in current dollars.
• Euros are converted to dollars at an average exchange rate of 1.10 for the first quarter of 2020, 1.19 for the fourth quarter of 2020, and 1.21 for the first quarter of 2021 according to historic rates listed at the Federal Reserve (see source link below).
• US data comes in an annualized format which the EU does not, thus EU data is annualized by multiplying the quarterly figure by four.
• US growth rates may differ from those provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as the BEA's growth rates are based on chained dollars in conjunction with the chain index or the quality index for real GDP.  The growth rates listed here are based on nominal GDP.
• All figures are rounded to the nearest hundredth.

Details

Slovakia had the worst performance over the previous quarter with an annualized rate of -1.37%.  Ireland had the best performance with an annualized rate of 11.73%.

Year over year, Hawaii had the worst performance with an annualized rate of -2.96% while Ireland had the best performance with an annualized rate of 19.74%.

Luxembourg saw the worst change in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth slowing its rate by 15.96 percentage points.  Hawaii had the best change in its growth rate between its year-over-year growth and its annualized quarterly growth raising its rate by 4.92 percentage points.

Wyoming (from 76th best growth rate over the same quarter last year to the 7th best growth rate over the previous quarter) rose 69 spots.  Conversely, Slovakia (from 12th to 78th) fell 66 spots.  Two states had growth rates in the top five both over the same quarter last year and over the previous quarter: Ireland (1st highest year-over-year, 1st highest quarterly) and Estonia (4th highest year-over-year, 3rd highest quarterly).  One state had growth rates in the bottom ten (zero in the bottom five) both over the same quarter last year and over the previous quarter: New York (77th highest year-over-year, 70th highest quarterly).

Sources

Eurostat.  2021.  "GDP and Main Components."  Accessed July 21, 2021.  https://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?query=BOOKMARK_DS-406779_QID_-41E5E7A5_UID_-3F171EB0&layout=TIME,C,X,0;GEO,L,Y,0;UNIT,L,Z,0;S_ADJ,L,Z,1;NA_ITEM,L,Z,2;INDICATORS,C,Z,3;&zSelection=DS-406779UNIT,CP_MEUR;DS-406779INDICATORS,OBS_FLAG;DS-406779NA_ITEM,B1GQ;DS-406779S_ADJ,SCA;&rankName1=UNIT_1_2_-1_2&rankName2=INDICATORS_1_2_-1_2&rankName3=NA-ITEM_1_2_-1_2&rankName4=S-ADJ_1_2_-1_2&rankName5=TIME_1_0_0_0&rankName6=GEO_1_2_0_1&sortC=ASC_-1_FIRST&rStp=&cStp=&rDCh=&cDCh=&rDM=true&cDM=true&footnes=false&empty=false&wai=false&time_mode=NONE&time_most_recent=false&lang=EN&cfo=%23%23%23%2C%23%23%23.%23%23%23.

Federal Reserve.  2021.  "Foreign Exchange Rates."  Accessed July 21, 2021.  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g5/.

Office for National Statistics.  2021.  "Gross Domestic Product at market prices: Current price: Seasonally adjusted £m - Office for National Statistics."  Accessed July 21, 2021.  https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ybha/ukea.

US Bureau of Economic Analysis.  2021.  "GDP by State."  Accessed July 20, 2021.  https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state.